Quarterly Economic Report
Q2 2026
Key Takeaways
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report is a quarterly review and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
01 The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate throughout Q1 2026.
The Fed’s actions reflected a cautious stance amidst inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
02 Inflationary pressures resumed due to geopolitical conflict.
The war in Iran caused a sharp rise in oil prices, reversing earlier disinflation trends.
03 The unemployment rate was range-bound between 4.3% and 4.4%.
The average number of jobs grew by approximately 68,000 per month in Q1 2026.
Inflation progress reversed.
Due to conflict in the Middle East and oil price spikes, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose to 3.3% in March 2026.
US growth faced a challenging economic environment.
Gross domestic product (GDP) declined to 2.1% in 2025. Inflation, geopolitics and cautious consumer behavior contributed to the slowdown.
Market sector performance shaped by oil price shock.
Energy and commodity sectors outperformed while technology stocks and broad US equities declined.
The bond markets were pressured by inflation and oil prices.
US Treasury yields rose sharply during the quarter and investment-grade corporate bonds saw widening spreads.
Written and researched by SVB dedicated professionals.
