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Quarterly Economic Report, Q4 2022
Key takeaways
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report is a quarterly review and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
01
The Federal Reserve continues its hawkish policy.
The Fed is focused on lowering inflation and hawkish monetary policy remains in place.
02
Front-end rates have accelerated higher.
Markets have digested Fed guidance and inflation data and factored in an aggressive Fed in 2022.
03
The yield curve remains inverted.
The shape of the yield curve warrants monitoring as a possible predictor of recession.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Growth is expected to normalize in 2022, with market consensus showing expectations for 1.9% for Q3 2022 and 0.6% for Q4 2022.
Unemployment Rate Hovering Near Pre-Pandemic Levels
The unemployment rate was historically low, ending Q3 at 3.5%, the same rate as before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Global Central Bank Expectations
Persistent inflation continues to push expectations for higher interest rates by global central banks.
Yields Across the Globe
Global yields are high relative to their YoY averages, as the US dollar strengthens.
Written and researched by SVB experts
Hiroshi Ikemoto
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Fixed Income Trader
Hiroshi Ikemoto and his team oversee the buying and selling of fixed income securities for separately managed accounts.
Jason Graveley
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Senior Manager, Fixed Income Trading
Jason Graveley and his team are responsible for carrying out investment strategies for numerous separately managed portfolios.
Jeff Probst
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Portfolio Manager
Jeff Probst and his team are responsible for the overall strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Jon Schwartz
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Senior Portfolio Manager
Jon Schwartz and his team are responsible for the development and execution of the strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Jose Sevilla
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Senior Portfolio Manager
Jose Sevilla calls on more than two decades of experience in financial services to analyze, structure and monitor fixed-income portfolios for his clients.
Timothy Lee, CFA
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Senior Credit Analyst
Tim Lee researches and recommends fixed-income investments in the corporate, municipal, sovereign and securitized product sectors.
Thomas O'Keefe, CFA, CAIA
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Head of Investment Strategy
Thomas O’Keefe is the Head of Investment Strategy for Silicon Valley Bank’s Wealth Advisory Group, responsible for portfolio construction, manager due diligence and market insights.
Ivan Asensio, Ph.D.
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Head of FX Risk Advisory
Ivan Asensio is responsible for delivering strategic risk management advice to clients through direct and iterative dialogue and tailored consulting engagements.
Kyle Lojek
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Fixed Income Trader
Darrell Leong
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Managing Director, Head of Investment Research
Darrell Leong leads a team of analysts and oversees the research process that includes the corporate bond, asset-backed securities, and sovereign debt sectors.
Steve Johnson
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Portfolio Manager
Steve Johnson and his team are responsible for the overall strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Christi Fletcher
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Senior Portfolio Manager
Christi Fletcher and her team are responsible for the overall strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.