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Quarterly Economic Report Q1 2024
Key takeaways
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report is a quarterly review and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
01
The FOMC’s outlook reflects a dovish pivot.
The Fed downgraded its economic assessment and softened its tone on inflation in Q4 2023.
02
Expectations for rate cuts in 2024 have been accelerated.
With inflation on a decline, the market is predicting rate cuts as soon as the first half of 2024.
03
The bond market was volatile in 2023.
The market is optimistic that interest rates and inflation continue to move lower in 2024.
Gross Domestic Product: Deceleration
Deceleration reflects slowdowns in personal consumption and private domestic investment.
Inflation: On the Decline
In December 2023, Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator — rose 3.2% YoY, which is down from 4.6% in December 2022.
Global and Domestic Yields
Bond yields across all regions and sectors are trading below their 1-year averages.
Sources: Bloomberg and ICE BofA Indices. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Global Equity Performance
Major equity market indices delivered strong gains as the Fed signals it may be done raising rates and could cut rates in the coming months.
Written and researched by SVB dedicated professionals
Hiroshi Ikemoto
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Fixed Income Trader
Hiroshi Ikemoto and his team oversee the buying and selling of fixed income securities for separately managed accounts.
Jason Graveley
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Senior Manager, Fixed Income Trading
Jason Graveley and his team are responsible for carrying out investment strategies for numerous separately managed portfolios.
Jeff Probst
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Portfolio Manager
Jeff Probst and his team are responsible for the overall strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Jon Schwartz
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Senior Portfolio Manager
Jon Schwartz and his team are responsible for the development and execution of the strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Jose Sevilla
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Senior Portfolio Manager
Jose Sevilla calls on more than two decades of experience in financial services to analyze, structure and monitor fixed-income portfolios for his clients.
Timothy Lee, CFA
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Senior Credit Analyst
Tim Lee researches and recommends fixed-income investments in the corporate, municipal, sovereign and securitized product sectors.
Ivan Asensio, Ph.D.
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Head of FX Risk Advisory
Ivan Asensio is responsible for delivering strategic risk management advice to clients through direct and iterative dialogue and tailored consulting engagements.
Darrell Leong
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Managing Director, Head of Investment Research
Darrell Leong leads a team of analysts and oversees the research process that includes the corporate bond, asset-backed securities, and sovereign debt sectors.
Steve Johnson
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Portfolio Manager
Steve Johnson and his team are responsible for the overall strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Christi Fletcher
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Senior Portfolio Manager
Christi Fletcher and her team are responsible for the overall strategy, security selection and risk management of client portfolios.
Michael Duranceau
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Credit Analyst
Mike Duranceau conducts fixed income research and provides investment recommendations across the corporate credit sector.