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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • February 7, 2023

    US rates may rise further following blowout jobs report, UK cabinet reshuffle begins following Zahawi dismissal, Euro-area retail sales decline.

    Looking for some in-depth market insights? Check out our latest edition of SVB FX Navigator 

    • FX Rates
      February 7, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.2024
      GBP/EUR1.1215
      EUR/USD1.0721
      USD/CAD1.3410
      EUR/CHF0.9921
      EUR/SEK11.3731
      EUR/NOK11.0726
      EUR/DKK7.4424
      USD/ILS3.4660
      AUD/USD0.6943
      NZD/USD0.6332
      USD/SGD1.3261
      USD/JPY131.78
      USD/CNH6.7929
      USD/INR82.6850
      EUR/ILS3.7159
      GBP/ILS4.1675
      USD/ZAR17.6248

    • GBP

      GBPUSD continued to trade below the 1.2100 handle yesterday, and briefly dipped below 1.20 this morning before rebounding to sit in the 1.2030 region as we print. GBPEUR has rebounded from Friday's lows, and sits above the 1.1200 handle as we print. The FTSE has gained 0.44% since the open.

      According to Halifax, the UK housing market stabilized in January, with property prices coming in on average, unchanged, breaking 4 months of decline. The lender calculates house prices based on the mortgages they write. Halifax does however still expect the market to weaken this year.

      The BOE and the UK Treasury have stepped up their planning for a digital currency, to sit alongside the physical banknotes - the currency which has been unofficially coined "Britcoin" could present significant opportunity for consumers and businesses in the second half of the decade.

      EUR

      Pressure on the Euro has continued, trading 60bps lower against the Dollar on the week so far. Risk aversion continues to dominate markets, pushing the US Dollar higher across the board, whilst disappointing data from the Eurozone added to the downward trend. Retail sales for the Euro area declined -2.8%, marginally worse than forecast. Data into this morning also failed to boost the single currency, with French Balance of Trade figures showing the trade deficit more than doubled in 2022, mainly due to higher energy costs. German industrial production also fell more than expected, decreasing by 3.1% on the previous month.

      EBC policymakers yesterday appeared less hawkish than their Fed counterparts, with Austrian central bank chief Robert Holzmann citing the risks of not doing enough, dwarf the risk of over-tightening. Focus will be on speeches from four ECB members today and any further confirmation that a rate hike may also be on the cards for May. European stocks advanced, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.2% as energy stocks outperformed. 

      USD

      Federal Reserve voting member Bostic has said that the jobs blowout raises the possibility that the FOMC will need to raise rates further. Whilst reiterating the case for rates to reach 5.1%, he stated that if the economy continues to show robustness despite tighter monetary conditions that the central bank will “have to do a little more work”.

      The US has started to recover parts from the Chinese balloon which was shot down off South Carolina. White House officials said the US was still trying to figure out how much senior leaders in Beijing new about the alleged spy mission.  Biden dismissed claims that this incident has weakened Sino-US relations, claiming that the Chinese understood the US position.

      US equities sold-off slightly as markets await commentary from Fed chair Jerome Powell later today to provide clarity over how monetary policy will adjust following last Friday’s jobs report. The NASDAQ closed 1% lower. The dollar steadied after making small gains through yesterday.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      Australia’s central bank raised interest rates by 0.25% and gave forward guidance that further tightening will be needed to ‘crush’ inflation. The Aussie gained 0.7% against the dollar and bond yields pushed higher. The RBA has lagged international counterparts in its hiking cycle, having raised 3.25% compared to 4% in NZ and 4.5% in the US, reflecting Governor Lowe’s efforts to achieve a soft landing.

      Measures of China’s financial risk eased in early February. Improved liquidity has enabled smaller banks and non-bank institutions to get funding, whilst the yuan’s appreciation reduced the risks associated with capital outflows.

      ILS

      Bank of Israel governor Amir Yaron, who largely avoids political involvement, carefully waded into the ongoing debate over judicial reforms. He stressed that “strong and independent” institutions were essential for a prosperous and developed economy. These were Yaron’s first comments on the matter. USDILS stabilised around 3.47, after making significant gains yesterday morning.

      Data & Events
      • Central Bank Speakers
        • BOE - Ramsden, Pill, Cunliffe
        • ECB – Villeroy, Schnabel
        • FED – Powell
      • Biden delivers State of the Union Address
      • UK Cabinet Reshuffle begins

    Risk Statement

    Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.

    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective Global Market Risk Solutions Advisor.
    0800 023 1440 from within the UK
    +44 207 367 7880 from overseas

    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary.

    Subscribe to receive FX updates to your inbox.


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    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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