Markets turn risk-off on Trump tariff concerns
August 2, 2019
The Bloomberg Dollar Index retraces yesterday’s advance as US-China trade woes stifle optimism from yesterday’s surprisingly optimistic Fed. Haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc are the largest G-10 gainers with global bond yields and emerging market currencies tumbling.
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect"Mark Twain
August 2, 2019
EUR/USD 1.1102 GBP/USD 1.2114 USD/CAD 1.3246 AUD/USD 0.6785 USD/JPY 106.61 USD/CNH 6.9733 USD/ILS 3.4935 USD/MXN 19.3284 USD/CHF 0.9833 USD/INR 69.6075
US-China trade relations remain tumultuous after President Trump pledged to place a 10% tariff on $300bn worth of goods. He stated, “I think they want to try and make a deal with us, but I’m not sure. Until such time there is a deal, we will be taxing the hell out of China”. China has already stated that it will retaliate if the tariffs are implemented.
US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment numbers released this morning marginally disappointed and are currently being received with muted reaction.GBP
Sterling is on pace for its biggest weekly drop since May after BoE officials held rates and lowered GDP growth forecasts. Governor Mark Carney stated that all current economic forecasts and monetary policy is based on the assumption the UK will leave the EU with a deal.EURThe euro flirts with two-year lows as yesterday’s less-than-expected dovish Fed pushed the common currency toward a 1.110 handle. On the data front, eurozone PPI data missed estimates while retail sales numbers surprised to the upside.CAD
The loonie is weaker as commodity currencies suffer from amplifying US-China trade tensions. Despite oil posting strong gains, data out of the region is quiet today.ASIA/PACIFIC
The Japanese yen showed significant gains as investors flocked to safe haven assets in the midst of growing US-China trade concerns.
South Korea was removed from Japan’s list of trusted export partners. This comes on the back of yesterday’s data showing an 11% YoY decrease in South Korean exports.
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