State of the Markets

H2 2025
SVB’s Innovation Economy Outlook

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Key Takeaways

After a period of cost cutting, headcount reductions and painful austerity measures, company operations appear to have reached a new stable equilibrium. Still, founders are navigating market volatility caused by macroeconomic uncertainty, even as they continue to adapt to the recalibrated innovation economy. Against this backdrop, AI remains the driving force of US venture capital investment.

$5 The amount burned by the median Series A AI company to gain $1 of new revenue.

Burn multiples for AI companies are higher than other sectors, suggesting low-cost capital could be fueling inefficient growth.

10 The number of US VC-backed tech IPOs in the first half of 2025.

With the IPO window finally cracking open, it appears pent-up demand from investors will drive continued activity through the back half of the year — provided the market avoids shakeups due to significant macro events.

1/3 The portion of US VC investment from deals with the six largest funds.

The increase from 10% in the period ending in November 2024 was driven almost exclusively by massive AI deals.