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    • Foreign Exchange Advisory
    • FX Update

    US dollar sell-off pauses amid fears of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes tipping the US economy into a...

    Nicholas Farguson Headshot
    Nicholas Farguson
    • December 19, 2022
    • The Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.50% to 4.25% - 4.5%, a 15-year high target range, with a projected terminal rate of 5.1%. The Fed indicated that rates will need to continue to rise until it sees ‘sustained’ inflation reduction.
    • The Bank of England raised rates by 0.50%, to contain inflation. However, policymakers’ dovish commentary and smaller potential 2023 rate hikes caused the pound to slide 2%.
    • The European Central Bank also raised rates by 0.50%, downshifting from a previous 0.75%, increasing their inflation forecast, and setting in motion plans to reduce their Asset Purchase Program Portfolio. In the immediate reaction, the euro shot higher by 0.75% before settling back down.  
    • Economic and monetary policy uncertainty is driving continued currency uncertainty in the months ahead. The US dollar strength should soften as other central bank’s policy rates catch up with the Fed, however, a significant economic downturn could provide continued strength for the dollar.

    In focus this week: important global economic data out this week will influence central bank policies in the coming year.

    Data/Events Calendar 12/19 – 12/23

    Monday (19th): Japan - Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision; Australia – Royal Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes; Germany – Business Climate

    Tuesday (20th): US - Building Permits; Canada – Retail Sales; EU – Consumer Confidence

    Wednesday (21st): Canada – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

    Thursday (22nd): Japan – CPI; US – GDP

    Friday (23rd): US - Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income, Personal Spending; Canada - GDP

    • FX Rates
      Last Week's Range

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.05-1.07
      GBP/USD1.21-1.24
      USD/CAD1.35-1.37
      AUD/USD0.67-0.69
      USD/JPY134.54-138.17
      USD/CNH6.94-7
      USD/ILS3.39-3.47
      USD/MXN19.52-19.92
      USD/CHF0.92-0.94
      USD/INR82.41-82.9
      USD/BRL5.23-5.37
      USD/SGD1.34-1.36
      USD/DKK6.93-7.08
      USD/SEK10.15-10.41
      USD/NOK9.7-10.03

    • USD

      Market Bias: Mixed

      • The Fed hiked interest rates by the expected 0.50% to 4.25% - 4.50%, the seventh consecutive rate hike. The Fed projects a terminal rate of 5.1% in 2023. Fed Chair Powell, in a hawkish tone, committed to keep raising interest rates to see a sustained reduction in inflation down to the committee's 2% target level.
      • US annualized inflation as of November came in at 7.1%, core inflation at 6%, continuing a downward trend from the peak set during the summer.
      • Retail sales for November declined 0.6%, much worse than the market anticipated - a 0.1% fall.
      • The US Purchasing Managers’ Indexes fell significantly below expectations, with the composite falling to 44.6 in December from 46.4 in the previous month, signaling a deepening economic contraction in the US.
      • Risk to current market bias: Sustained drop in inflation and risks shift from inflation to economic contraction could shift the Fed to a looser policy path, however, a deep economic contraction could drive dollar strength.
      GBP

      Market Bias: Mixed

      • Bank of England (BoE) voted 6-3 to raise interest rates by 0.50% to 3.5%, during its December meeting, the highest level in 14 years. The Central Bank will continue to assess data in future rate decisions but projects a current peak in Consumer Price Index inflation.
      • Retail sales dropped by 0.4% month-over-month in November.
      • Consumer confidence rose slightly to -42 but still hovers near the record low of -49 reached in September. High inflation and a prolonged recession continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.
      • UK annualized inflation as of November came in a touch softer at 10.7% from 11.1% in the previous month, consensus was at 10.9%.
      • Risk to current market bias: A softening Fed interest rate policy path is supportive of the pound, however, the risk of recession in the UK could also put a pause on the BoE rate hikes.
      EUR

      Market Bias: Mixed

      • The European Central Bank (ECB) raised is policy rate by 0.50% to 2% and announced plans to reduce its balance sheet by allowing maturing principal holdings under the Asset Purchase Program to roll off starting in March. The more hawkish tone and policy is supportive for the currency and in the absence of other factors should provide a ramp for the currency to continue to strengthen.
      • October industrial production fell 2% vs. an expected drop of 1.5% from September. Annually industrial production has slowed to 3.4% in October from 5.1% in September.
      • S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI stabilized in December but both readings still show an economic contraction, however at a moderated pace. Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8 while Services PMI came in at 49.1.
      • Eurozone annualized inflation as of November moderated slightly to 10.1% from 10.6% in the prior month.
      • Risk to current market bias: An overall hawkish ECB stance and softening Fed interest rate policy path is supportive of the euro, however, the risk of recession in the Eurozone could also put a pause on the ECB rate hikes.
      CAD

      Market Bias: Mixed

      • Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s year-end speech indicated the bank’s primary concern is not raising rates fast enough to control inflation versus the resulting risk of economic recession. The hawkish remarks sent the Canadian dollar lower by about 1%.
      • Housing starts drifted slightly lower, down 0.2% to 264,159 units in November.
      • Risk to current market bias:  As the Bank of Canada slows the pace of its interest rate tightening the Canadian dollar strength will be increasingly impacted by the Fed’s interest rate policy.
      ASIA/PACIFIC

      JPY (Japanese yen)

      Market Bias: Bearish

      • The Jibun Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index dropped to 48.8 in December compared with 49 from the month prior, while the Services Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.7 from 50.3. The services industries continue to benefit from a boost in tourism.
      • Trade deficits in Japan continue to surge, with November recorded at JPY 2,027 billion from JPY 973.6 billion a year ago, marking the 16th consecutive deficit month.
      • Japan’s core machine order got a boost from strong corporate capital spending coming in at 5.4% month-over-month compared with expectations for a 2.6% gain, however, machine orders are still well below order levels from a year ago at 0.4% compared to 2.9%
      • Risk to current market bias: A softening Fed interest rate policy path and decreasing import prices reducing trade deficits for Japan could strengthen the currency.

      CHN/CNY (Chinese yuan)

      Market Bias: Mixed

      • China’s November industrial production year-over-year grew at 2.2% compared to 5% in the year prior. This is less than the market anticipated at 3.6% and the weakest growth since May.
      • The November unemployment rate is hovering at 5.7% from 5.5% in the previous month.
      • China’s November retail sales year-over-year dropped 5.9%, much steeper than the prior month’s drop of 0.5%, while the market expectations were for a 3.7% drop.
      • Risk to current market bias: Pivot away from the restrictive COVID prevention measures could increase infections to a vulnerable population further stifling economic growth hurting the yuan while a softening Fed interest rate policy path could strengthen the currency.
      Performance relative to common FX Budget Rate:
             
        Average Rate for 2021 Current Spot    Current Spot vs 2021 Average
      AUD 0.7513 0.6703 -10.8%
      CAD 1.2537 1.3686 -9.2%
      CHF 0.9143 0.9336 -2.1%
      CNH 6.4506 6.9797 -8.2%
      EUR 1.1828 1.0582 -10.5%
      GBP 1.3757 1.2127 -11.8%
      JPY 109.85 136.85 -24.6%
    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at GroupFXRiskAdvisory@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/foreign-exchange-advisory

    Subscribe to receive FX updates to your inbox.


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    ©2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Nicholas Farguson
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    Nicholas Farguson
    Nick Farguson is a foreign exchange (FX) advisor for Silicon Valley Bank, focused on supporting growth-stage software companies in the San Francisco Bay Area.
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