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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • March 7, 2023

    Shekel gains as judicial compromise on the table, “no-landing” scenario hinges on household savings, UK house prices gain through February.

    • FX Rates
      March 7, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.2034
      GBP/EUR1.1281
      EUR/USD1.0668
      USD/CAD1.3628
      EUR/CHF0.9932
      EUR/SEK11.1603
      EUR/NOK11.1378
      EUR/DKK7.4430
      USD/ILS3.5930
      AUD/USD0.6688
      NZD/USD0.6213
      USD/SGD1.3452
      USD/JPY135.59
      USD/CNH6.9349
      USD/INR81.9200
      EUR/ILS3.8329
      GBP/ILS4.3238
      USD/ZAR18.2802

    • GBP

      Halifax reported that across the UK, property values increased by 1.1% month on month in February, accelerating from a 0.2% increase in January with the average house price sitting at £285,476. Average prices in London have fallen by 0.9% over the past year largely effected by the large proportion of flats.

      UK construction activity beat investor expectations in February to register its highest growth rate in nine months as an improving global outlook boosted commercial projects. Construction order books expanded for the first time since November 2022 whilst input price increases were the slowest since November 2020. Builders also continued to hire workers.

      Retail sales in February were boosted despite high inflation. Like-for-like sales climbed 4.9% from a year ago after a 2.7% increase in February 2022 according to data from KPMG, well above the 12-month average of 1.6%. Figures were helped along by sales of fragrance and jewelry around Valentine’s Day.
      GBP gained early this morning reaching highs of 1.1291 vs EUR and 1.2065 vs the USD, however, has since declined sharply. The FTSE opens in the red down 0.07% as we print.

      EUR

      The Euro has had a positive start to the week, trading 0.4% higher against the Dollar to reach two-week highs just below 1.0700. The single currency jumped on further hawkish sentiment from the ECB, with member Holzmann suggesting 50bp hikes may be needed at the next four meetings. Traders have bought forward bets on interest rates reaching 4% to September, a more aggressive stance than markets had initially expected. As of one month ago, money markets had priced in rates to peak at 3.5% in July before pausing.

      Protests continue in France today, with trains suspended, schools closed, and oil refineries blocked, in response to the government’s pension reform plans. Today is the sixth day of strikes and protests since mid-January, with police estimating 1.2 million people taking part. 

      Retail sales in the Euro Area continued to disappoint, contracting 2.3% YoY, more than the 1.8% expected, as consumers take a more cautious approach to spending. Monthly sales added 0.3%, although significantly missed forecasts of a 1% gain. European shares wiped out gains following the data and expectations of further hikes, closing the London session flat. 

      USD

      With January’s jobless data robust across the board, this has supported ideas that the US economy was reaccelerating despite the Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening. This has bolstered “no-landing” optimists who believe that on its current economic trajectory the US economy will skirt recession altogether. Despite the robust jobs market, it is estimated that households have 6-12 months of spending runway built from excess savings. If this is exhausted a downturn may be difficult to avoid.

      The dollar steadied ahead of Jerome Powell’s two-day testimony and Friday’s monthly payrolls data.

      Polls for the 2024 presidential election show that a Biden vs Trump re-run would be extremely tight with polling close. Trump remains the favourite for the republican nomination.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      China’s exports have declined in the first two months of 2023 and may indicate that external demand is dragging on the economy’s recovery. Exports fell 6.8% YoY in the first two months of 2023.

      Cooler inflation gives the Bank of Thailand scope to pause its tightening cycle, with the headline CPI measure on track to return to the target band by mid-year. The BOT is expected to hold its interest rate at 1.5%.

      ILS

      The shekel gained by over 2% on hopes of a political compromise on the government’s judicial plans, the TA-35 also gained as much as 1.6%.  This came as Israeli president Isaac Herzog said that politicians were close to a compromise.

      Data & Events

      Fed’s Powell – Senate Banking Panel Testimony

    Risk Statement

    Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.

    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

    Contact Us

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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