Headline Retail Sales for August (+0.7%) were much better than expected (-0.07%), however July (-1.8%) was revised down from (-1.1%). The dollar, which had rebounded from yesterday’s losses overnight, added to its gains vs. mostly all of its peers. FX markets will begin to turn their attention to next week's Fed meeting and elections in Canada (Monday) and Germany (Sept. 26).
“Success is a science, if you have the conditions, you get the results.”
September 16, 2021
EUR/USD 1.1754 GBP/USD 1.3774 USD/CAD 1.2672 AUD/USD 0.7289 USD/JPY 109.8 USD/CNH 6.4574 USD/ILS 3.2119 USD/MXN 19.9249 USD/CHF 0.9269 USD/INR 73.5163 USD/BRL 5.2765 USD/SGD 1.3462 USD/DKK 6.3271 USD/SEK 8.6376 USD/NOK 8.6359
Economic data helped lift the US dollar as Retail Sales and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (30.7) index both came in better than expected (19). Weekly Jobless Claims (332K) were slightly higher than expected (322K).GBP
Sterling lost ground vs. the US dollar on stronger US economic data. The pound fell below the 1.38 level and remains in a broad trading range of between 1.36 and 1.39.
Yesterday’s higher than expected inflation data fueled speculation that the Bank of England may begin tapering sooner than anticipated thereby limiting the pound's losses.EUR
The euro hit a new low for September on overall dollar strength. Financial markets will be focusing on next week’s regularly scheduled FOMC meeting and the General Election in Germany on September 26.CAD
The Canadian dollar follows oil lower in the face of an election set for Monday. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in a dead heat vs. the Conservative candidate Erin O’Toole.
The price of oil, which is priced globally in US dollars, is lower this morning in part to reflect the stronger dollar. Production in the Gulf of Mexico began to come back online and is now at 70% capacity.ASIA/PACIFIC
The yen is weaker as risk-on sentiment hits demand. Also, the Japanese government has cut its assessment of the economy for the first time in 4 months following the recent extension of its latest COVID-19 related lockdown.
The Australian dollar weakened after jobs data for August came in weaker than expected showing net job losses of 146,000. The New Zealand dollar lost ground despite posting stronger GDP gains than expected.
For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:
See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory
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