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    • Foreign Exchange Advisory
    • FX Update

    Volatile FX trading reflects broader investors angst over possible global recession

    Peter Compton Headshot
    Peter Compton
    • June 22, 2022

    While strategic investors and economists debate the possibility of a recession, the FX markets, like equities, lurch from risk-on to risk off.  Both Canada and the UK print inflation data sure to support additional rate hikes. Oil slides 6% on recession fears.

    “Do not take life too seriously.  You will never get out of it alive.”

    Elbert Hubbard
    • FX Rates
      June 22, 2022

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.0548
      GBP/USD1.2258
      USD/CAD1.2957
      AUD/USD0.6915
      USD/JPY135.99
      USD/CNH6.7128
      USD/ILS3.4539
      USD/MXN20.1128
      USD/CHF0.9627
      USD/INR78.38
      USD/BRL5.1685
      USD/SGD1.3885
      USD/DKK7.0527
      USD/SEK10.1254
      USD/NOK9.9407

    • USD

      Little economic news this morning so FX markets are being driven by overall risk sentiment. Overnight, the dollar surged vs. most currencies as Asian central banks are generally seen as being behind the Fed when raising interest rates.  Dollar gains were quickly given back in morning trading in the US.

      GBP

      The pound is flat after UK CPI printed at 9.1% accelerating from 0.1% the month prior. Inflation is currently expected to peak near 10% in October.

      According to the resolution foundation, Brexit reduced the competitiveness of the British economy, with workers expected to be £500 worse off by 2030. Despite this, UK stocks have started to outperform US and European equities thanks to their large exposure to commodity firms and banks.

      EUR

      The euro is slightly stronger in early trading. The Czech central bank is seen hiking between 0.75%-1.5% in what might be the last of their big moves to contain inflation.

      Italy faces a political crisis as significant politicians threaten to leave the Five Star movement, over the party’s refusal to back military support for Ukraine.

      CAD

      The Canadian dollar is weaker as oil price tumbles. Annual inflation reached 7.7% in May in Canada which is the highest since January 1983. The price of a barrel of oil fell 6% in morning trading on fears of a recession. Oil is trading below its 100-day moving average.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The yen hit a 24-year low before recovering following news from the BoJ meeting minutes that officials discussed forex intervention at their April meeting.

      The renminbi is weaker despite China’s finance minister stating that Beijing is considering further pro-growth policies to aid an economy struggling to shake off the latest omicron wave.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at GroupFXRiskAdvisory@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory

    Subscribe to receive FX updates to your inbox.

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    Please note that we will continue to send you communications that we need to send you (for example, to keep you updated on operational changes to your account, a product or a service) or that we are required to send you by law.

     Source: Bloomberg
     

    This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.

    ©2022 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Peter Compton
    WRITTEN BY
    Peter Compton
    • View Author Profile
    • Email

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