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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • February 27, 2023

     

    PCE surprise sees return of dollar strength, Sunak set to announce revised Brexit deal, UK GDP forecasts improve marginally.

    • FX Rates
      February 27, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.1951
      GBP/EUR1.1326
      EUR/USD1.0552
      USD/CAD1.3597
      EUR/CHF0.9943
      EUR/SEK11.0646
      EUR/NOK10.9469
      EUR/DKK7.4434
      USD/ILS3.6745
      AUD/USD0.6716
      NZD/USD0.6152
      USD/SGD1.3502
      USD/JPY136.37
      USD/CNH6.9851
      USD/INR82.8600
      EUR/ILS3.8774
      GBP/ILS4.3912
      USD/ZAR18.4026

    • GBP

      Rishi Sunak meets with the European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen today, for the final talks ahead of the expected announcement of a post-Brexit trade settlement that would soften the barriers that have emerged from the Northern Ireland Protocol and end a long dispute between the two sides. Although the British PM is expected to seal an agreement with Brussels, he continues to face backlash internally from Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and the Irish DUP. This deal will not only restore crumbling government in Northern Ireland but will further improve the UK’s relations with the EU.

      The economic outlook for the UK has improved, with analysts forecasting a smaller contraction due to the drop in energy prices and improved consumer sentiment.

      GBPUSD has a choppy week, reaching highs of 1.2147 and lows on Friday of 1.1938. Sterling stays subdued this morning sitting in the 1.1960 region due to USD strength following the release of US PCE inflation data which showed an uptick in inflation in January. The FTSE opened in the green up 0.73% as we print.

      BOE’s Tenreyro spoke on Friday stating that UK inflation is expected to fall and that financial conditions have tightened. She further stated that she sees risk of overtightening rates in the UK.

      EUR

      EURUSD is trading flat this morning around 1.0550 at time of writing. The pair lost ground last week, losing 1.25% as investors digested mixed data releases. The decline was the largest weekly loss for the euro since September. Focus will turn to consumer and business sentiment figures due this morning, where forecasts expect to see an uplift.

      Ursula von der Leyen and Rishi Sunak are due to meet today in a bid to find an agreement over the Northern Ireland protocol. Officials close to the matter have said that “this is the closest” the two regions have been to reaching a formal agreement.

      European stocks rallied this morning with the Stoxx 600 index up 1% as all sectors opened the week in the green. 

      USD

      Last Friday’s PCE deflator provided markets with one more upside inflation surprise, following the narrative of all price gauges last month. The headline PCE figure rose 0.6% month on month higher than the consensus. More worrisome for US equities was that both core inflation and “supercore” (core services excl. housing) both accelerated. These upward revisions have bucked the disinflationary trend, and could potentially keep inflation sustained throughout the year, and above the Fed’s December forecast. Off the back of this the dollar found renewed strength on Friday as interest rate expectations continue to find fresh highs, the dollar spot index gained from 104.6 early Friday to 105.2.

      January’s durable-goods orders will be dented by a sharp drop-off in aircraft after Boeing received it largest monthly gross order the previous month. Orders are expected to decline by 4% versus 5.6% growth the month prior.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      Biden warned China about providing lethal aid to Russia, stating that the US would respond if it did. Meanwhile, China’s Parliament, the National People Congress is meeting to hear how the country’s top leaders plan to restart the country’s growth engine. The NPC will review the governments performance, and policy goals.

      ILS

      Some commentators see the shekel’s reaction to last week’s interest rise, as an increasingly negative sign. Despite the Bank of Israel surprising with a larger size rate hike the Shekel lost value, which may highlight a significant loss of confidence in the Israeli economy.

      USDILS remains just below yearly highs at the 3.67 handle, as dollar strength and shekel weakness continue to stir volatility into the cross.

      Data & Events

      BOE’s Broadbent speaks

      Eurozone Jan. M3 Money Supply

      Eurozone Consumer/Economic Confidence

    Risk Statement

    Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.

    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective Global Market Risk Solutions Advisor.
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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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