Swaps show 50% chance of 100-bps hike; Sunak and Mordant emerge as frontrunners; EC cuts euro-area growth forecasts.
July 14, 2022
GBP/USD 1.1867 GBP/EUR 1.1822 EUR/USD 1.0038 USD/CAD 1.3011 EUR/CHF 0.9869 EUR/SEK 10.6212 EUR/NOK 10.2463 EUR/DKK 7.4416 USD/ILS 3.4682 AUD/USD 0.6774 NZD/USD 0.6123 USD/SGD 1.3995 USD/JPY 138.94 USD/CNH 6.7512 USD/INR 79.8850 EUR/ILS 3.4812 GBP/ILS 4.1155 USD/ZAR 17.0547
The race to replace incumbent PM Johnson continued yesterday, with the first round providing insight into who will next hold the keys to downing street. Rishi Sunak, former chancellor and Penny Mordaunt, former minister, currently have the support of the most MPs. It is important to note that Mordaunt is the clear favourite amongst tory members who ultimately have the final say.EUR
GDP forecasts have been trimmed globally, with the EC continuing the trend cutting the euro-area’s forecasts to 2.6% citing energy shortages and inflation. The EC also raised its inflation estimate to 7.6%
Yesterday saw the euro briefly touch parity with the dollar before rebounding as the market repeatedly finds support at that level.USD
Swaps markets show a 50% chance of a 100-bps hike in July. Yesterday’s CPI printed at 9.1% exceeding forecasts of 8.8%. This high print has consolidated the Feds resolve to maintain aggressive tightening conditions. It appears the FOMC is now split between 75-bps and 100-bps.ASIA/PACIFIC
USDCNY has struck a 4-week low. Japanese stocks shook off US inflation data, and the weakening yen which hit 24-year lows, bolstered business for Japanese businesses.ILS
USDILS trades 0.1% higher as we print, at 3.466. Opinion polling for the 2022 election shows that no bloc would be able to attain a majority.Data & Events
EC publishes economic forecasts
US weekly jobless claims
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