US retails sales remain resilient, UK’s budget announcement expected today, US data signals downshift more likely by Fed.
November 17, 2022
GBP/USD 1.1921 GBP/EUR 1.1480 EUR/USD 1.0384 USD/CAD 1.3336 EUR/CHF 0.9825 EUR/SEK 10.9173 EUR/NOK 10.4242 EUR/DKK 7.4386 USD/ILS 3.4353 AUD/USD 0.6713 NZD/USD 0.6142 USD/SGD 1.3724 USD/JPY 139.40 USD/CNH 7.1351 USD/INR 81.5625 EUR/ILS 3.5672 GBP/ILS 4.0952 USD/ZAR 17.3109
Today sees the much-anticipated UK budget proposals from the new government. The budget is expected to show fiscal responsibility, with tax increases and spending cuts heavily anticipated. Jeremy Hunt has said previously that everyone will need to pay more and has hinted that those with the broadest shoulder will have to bear the 'greatest burden'.
Jeremy Hunt will speak at 3:30 UK Time.EUR
The European Union is running out of time to approve Hungary’s recovery funds ahead of a key deadline. The EC likely won’t issue its verdict next week on the investment and reform proposals sent by Budapest. The package needs to be approved by the end of the year
Policymakers at the European Central Bank could slow down interest rates hike with only a 0.5% hike next month. A momentum behind another 0.75% appears to dissipate based of the tone of ECB officials, barring an inflation shock the governing council could favour the less aggressive step.USD
US retail sales were resilient amidst a worsening economic outlook as the Fed’s aggressive policy path weighs on the economy. Headline sales grew by 1.3% in October, topping the consensus of 1.0% growth. Consumer spending also beat expectations surging by 0.9%, against an anticipated 0.2%. It is expected that as the winter continues consumers might begin to hunker down early next year.
On the other hand, Industrial production fell 0.1% in the same month, against estimates for a 0.3% gain. These figures add to a growing ensemble of data signalling the core-good inflation may be slowing. Both Retail sales and Industrial Production could make the FOMC more comfortable with a decision to downshift to a 0.5% hike in December.ASIA/PACIFIC
Bank Indonesia’s rate hike today is another step in supporting the rupiah. The central bank raised its interest rate by 0.5%, whilst many expected a 0.25% rise. Inflation remains high at 5.9%, however growth forecasts remain between its 4.5-5.3% anticipated range.
The Philippines central bank reinforced its commitment to anchoring inflation expectations with forward guidance which points to more tightening, whilst core-inflation remains above target.ILSUSDILS trades 0.1% higher intraday. Israel Year-to-Date bond sales are down 60% compared to last year.Data & Events
UK Fiscal Statement/Economic Forecasts
Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.
The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.
For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:
0800 023 1440 from within the UK
+44 207 367 7880 from overseas
See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary.
© 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).
Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.
Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk.
This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.
Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.