US and EU close on deal to curb Russian energy dependence; Global bonds continue their slide; EU PMI to signal Ukraine impact on bloc’s economy.
March 24, 2022
GBP/USD 1.3187 GBP/EUR 1.1992 EUR/USD 1.0997 USD/CAD 1.2566 EUR/CHF 1.0265 EUR/SEK 10.3361 EUR/NOK 9.4842 EUR/DKK 7.4389 USD/ILS 3.2232 AUD/USD 0.7483 NZD/USD 0.6956 USD/SGD 1.3574 USD/JPY 121.53 USD/CNH 6.3842 USD/INR 76.3063 EUR/ILS 3.5446 GBP/ILS 4.2503 USD/ZAR 14.7600
The UK government could be forced to bail out a Gazprom unit that supplies a fifth of the UK’s commercial gas, this could cost the taxpayer £4 billion. UK Treasury revenue is expected to grow by £ 27 million more than forecast despite tax-cuts made by the chancellor yesterday.
In the UK Manufacturing PMI is seen slipping to 57, and Bloomberg economics expected the economy to flirt with recession in the second half of the year.
GBPUSD trades down -0.14%, the FTSE100 outperformed European equities yesterday down only -0.22%, compared to losses greater than a percentage point across European markets.EUR
Euro-area PMI will be closely watched today to assess the impact of the Ukraine war on the bloc’s economy. EU Manufacturing PMI probably dipped by two points to 56 in February.
Macron is polling well on both rounds of the French presidential election, leading all opponents by a wider margin. Le pen is the closest in the second-round polling 10-points behind Macron.
EURUSD trades down -0.3%, with all European stocks closing by at least 1%.USD
The sell-off in short-term treasuries may be approaching its peak as investors price in the Fed’s intention to aggressively raise rates, indicated by Powell earlier this week.
The Fed’s Bullard has said that parts of the US economy might be overvalued with “excesses in US financial markets”.
Initial Jobless claims are expected to decline to 210,000 from 214,000, below the pre-pandemic average from 2019.
The DXY trades up 0.26%, US equities slumped across the board yesterday.ASIA/PACIFIC
The Philippine central bank is expected to leave its key rate unchanged at 2. China needs to be vigilant about safeguarding its economy from possible financial risk should the PBOC diverge from the monetary policy of other major central banks, the Economic Daily has warned.
Chinese economic activity measured by high-frequency indicators suggest a drop in output and spending following several regional Lockdowns.ILS
USDILS has traded relatively flat since today’s open, experiencing high volatility during the Asia session but failing to find a direction.Data & Events
EU – Global services and Manufacturing PMIs
UK – Global Services and Manufacturing PMIs
BOE - Mann speaks
ECB - Elderson/Schnabel speaks
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