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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • March 8, 2023

    Powell sees higher terminal rate bringing strength to the dollar, BOE may raise rates further as tighter policy has limited impact, RBA hints that rate pause is on horizon.

    • FX Rates
      March 8, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.1837
      GBP/EUR1.1227
      EUR/USD1.0544
      USD/CAD1.3756
      EUR/CHF0.9937
      EUR/SEK11.3001
      EUR/NOK11.2563
      EUR/DKK7.4425
      USD/ILS3.6068
      AUD/USD0.6606
      NZD/USD0.6123
      USD/SGD1.3539
      USD/JPY137.59
      USD/CNH6.9757
      USD/INR82.0213
      EUR/ILS3.8029
      GBP/ILS4.2694
      USD/ZAR18.6445

    • GBP

      Some see the Bank of England continuing to take interest rates higher through 2023 driven by two dynamics. Inflation may not moderate as quickly as initially hoped, and the impact of monetary tightening may be smaller than anticipated. This is supported by some upticks in GDP and retail sales against the consensus through recent months.

      There has been a political debate kicked off by the Labour appointment of senior civil servant Sue Gray. Having been an influential impartial civil servant and famously authored the investigation into partygate, her move to the partisan world has stoked flurries of questions. On the other side of the commons, the Tories are concerned that her closeness to sensitive government operations could be damaging in the hands of the opposition.

      GBPUSD lost ground against the dollar yesterday, falling 1.7%.

      EUR

      German industrial production gained 3.5% MoM for January, after declining 2.4% in December, whilst construction activity climbed 12.6%, boosted by milder temperatures during the month. The strong print is a welcome news for the German economy, reducing recessionary concerns for Q1. Retail sales however disappointed for the bloc’s engine room, declining 0.3% for the month, against expectations of a 2.3% gain. Focus shifts to GDP figures from the Euro Area today and comments from ECB President Lagarde.

      The euro is trading at two-month lows against the Dollar, falling 1.3% over the course of Tuesday to trade just below 1.0550 at time of writing. The decline comes amid broad dollar strength following Jerome Powell’s testimony to congress, endorsing further rate hikes. Sentiment appeared to be matched across the pond, with ECB policy member Klaas Knot yesterday suggesting rate hikes may continue for “quite some time” after March. 

      USD

      Jerome Powell’s testimony rattled FX markets as he said that inflation risks are still tilted to the upside, he also stated that policymakers are prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes if needed. Off the back of this, market pricing of the Federal Reserves terminal rate jumped to 5.5% from 5.25%. This translated into a return of greenback strength, with the dollar spot index climbing 1.2% since Powell started his testimony. US equities suffered as markets adjusted their interest rate expectations, the NASDAQ and S&P500 closed -1.25% and -1.53% respectively.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The Australian Dollar trades at the lowest levels since November against the US dollar, as RBA Governor Philip Lowe cited the central bank was nearing the point where a pause in rate hikes may be appropriate, contrasting Jerome Powell’s stance to continue with tightening policy aggressively. AUD lost 2%, amongst the worst G10 performers, whilst the Australian 10-year yield lost as much as 7bps following Lowe’s comments.

      Emerging market currencies declined on the Fed outlook, with the MSCI Index losing as much as 1.6%. The Chinese central bank set a higher-than-expected fixing rate however, at 56pips above estimates, the largest strengthening bias since 6th Feb. The fix highlights the People’s Bank of Chinas intention to support the Yuan, after the currency weakened toward 7 against the dollar for the first time in 2023.

      ILS

      Israeli markets open once again following the Purim holiday. Israel’s foreign reserves fell to $196 billion from $201 billion in January.

      Data & Events

      Powell’s testimony continues

      Euro-Area 4Q GDP

      ECB Lagarde/Panetta speak

      US Trade Balance

      BOC rate decision

    Risk Statement

    Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.

    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective Global Market Risk Solutions Advisor.
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    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary.

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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