Non-farm payrolls expected to slow but far from tilting Fed policy, ECB minutes telegraph another 75-bps in October.
-
FX Rates
October 7, 2022Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
Source: BloombergGBP/USD 1.1168 GBP/EUR 1.1394 EUR/USD 0.9802 USD/CAD 1.3736 EUR/CHF 0.9698 EUR/SEK 10.9230 EUR/NOK 10.5081 EUR/DKK 7.4385 USD/ILS 3.5280 AUD/USD 0.6407 NZD/USD 0.5646 USD/SGD 1.4297 USD/JPY 144.91 USD/CNH 7.1115 USD/INR 82.3863 EUR/ILS 3.4580 GBP/ILS 3.9402 USD/ZAR 18.0077
-
GBP
Businesses across the UK are freezing hiring and employees are hesitant to move jobs as people expect a recession through 2023. The recruitment and employment confederation has said the economic outlook is leading to the fewest vacancies in more than a year and a half.
UK Pension funds are still dumping billions of pounds worth of assets to rebuild their reserves before the BoE removes support for the debt market next week.
EURYesterday’s ECB meeting minutes were consistent with market expectations for another 75-bps hike at the October meeting. The minutes also suggested that a 100-basis point move is almost certainly out of the question.
Berlin’s plan to borrow €200 billion euros, may not be enough to avert recessionary territory this winter. With current forecast seeing the German economy contracting by 0.3% from Q3 2022 to Q1 2023.
USDUS labour market data is expected to echo calls for more fed tightening, despite slipping through September. Consensus sees a gain of 255,000 jobs, a slowdown from August’s 315,000. The federal reserve is expected to continue hiking interest rates until they begin to weigh on economic activity significantly. US inflation data due next week is likely to play a more significant role in fed decision making than labour data.
Despite high inflation, near-record gas prices and raising food prices, most economist agree that the US economy is not in recession.
ASIA/PACIFICJapan’s holding spending gained 5.1% YoY, slower than estimated. Labour cash earnings grew faster than expected at 1.7%.
A range of Asian emergency markets are expected to report their foreign reserves data today. These reserves are expected to be strained as interventions are required to support domestic currencies against the surging greenback.
ILSUSDILS trades -0.1% lower intraday. Israel’s September foreign reserves fell to $186 billion according to the Bank of Israel.
Data & EventsCzech Central Bank minutes
Italy retail Sales
US Non-Farm Payrolls
Risk Statement
Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.
The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.
For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:
0800 023 1440 from within the UK
+44 207 367 7880 from overseas
See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary.
| Source: Bloomberg | |
© 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC. Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. |