Non-farm payrolls expected to slow but far from tilting Fed policy, ECB minutes telegraph another 75-bps in October.
October 7, 2022
GBP/USD 1.1168 GBP/EUR 1.1394 EUR/USD 0.9802 USD/CAD 1.3736 EUR/CHF 0.9698 EUR/SEK 10.9230 EUR/NOK 10.5081 EUR/DKK 7.4385 USD/ILS 3.5280 AUD/USD 0.6407 NZD/USD 0.5646 USD/SGD 1.4297 USD/JPY 144.91 USD/CNH 7.1115 USD/INR 82.3863 EUR/ILS 3.4580 GBP/ILS 3.9402 USD/ZAR 18.0077
Businesses across the UK are freezing hiring and employees are hesitant to move jobs as people expect a recession through 2023. The recruitment and employment confederation has said the economic outlook is leading to the fewest vacancies in more than a year and a half.
UK Pension funds are still dumping billions of pounds worth of assets to rebuild their reserves before the BoE removes support for the debt market next week.EUR
Yesterday’s ECB meeting minutes were consistent with market expectations for another 75-bps hike at the October meeting. The minutes also suggested that a 100-basis point move is almost certainly out of the question.
Berlin’s plan to borrow €200 billion euros, may not be enough to avert recessionary territory this winter. With current forecast seeing the German economy contracting by 0.3% from Q3 2022 to Q1 2023.USD
US labour market data is expected to echo calls for more fed tightening, despite slipping through September. Consensus sees a gain of 255,000 jobs, a slowdown from August’s 315,000. The federal reserve is expected to continue hiking interest rates until they begin to weigh on economic activity significantly. US inflation data due next week is likely to play a more significant role in fed decision making than labour data.
Despite high inflation, near-record gas prices and raising food prices, most economist agree that the US economy is not in recession.ASIA/PACIFIC
Japan’s holding spending gained 5.1% YoY, slower than estimated. Labour cash earnings grew faster than expected at 1.7%.
A range of Asian emergency markets are expected to report their foreign reserves data today. These reserves are expected to be strained as interventions are required to support domestic currencies against the surging greenback.ILS
USDILS trades -0.1% lower intraday. Israel’s September foreign reserves fell to $186 billion according to the Bank of Israel.Data & Events
Czech Central Bank minutes
Italy retail Sales
US Non-Farm Payrolls
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