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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • February 14, 2023

    Markets await key US CPI data, large Scale protests outside the Knesset over judicial reform plans, UK jobs data mounts pressure on BoE to deliver further rate hikes.

    • FX Rates
      February 14, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.2174
      GBP/EUR1.1323
      EUR/USD1.0752
      USD/CAD1.3339
      EUR/CHF0.9859
      EUR/SEK11.0934
      EUR/NOK10.8335
      EUR/DKK7.4507
      USD/ILS3.5064
      AUD/USD0.6966
      NZD/USD0.6335
      USD/SGD1.3264
      USD/JPY132.01
      USD/CNH6.8199
      USD/INR82.7413
      EUR/ILS3.7699
      GBP/ILS4.2685
      USD/ZAR17.8402

    • GBP

      Sterling opened the morning with a bound of optimism as jobs data released earlier indicated a robust labour market, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9%. Wage growth beat expectations, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to deliver another interest rate hike when they meet next month.

      Market focus now shifts to CPI data due for release tomorrow, as the population braces for an update on the central bank’s quest to tame inflation. Monday saw sterling gain a cent against its US counterpart, while the FTSE 100 closed the day in positive territory.

      EUR

      EURUSD could be bolstered if the US CPI print comes in close to expected levels, as the focus is shifted back to euro rates which have been steadily climbing off the back of a hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bankers.

      As the ECB has embarked on its most aggressive tightening cycle in its history, the correlation between risk-free rates and real lending rates points to more pain to come. Since December 2021, risk-free rates have increased by 2.9% meanwhile real lending rates have only increased by 2.0%. This could pose significant downside risk to businesses and consumers as borrowing costs continue to creep higher.

      The Euro gained through yesterday, finding support at the 1.0660 handle to rebound to 1.072 by the end of the day. The Stoxx 50 has opened up 0.26% as we print.  

      USD

      The path to lower inflation may not be as smooth as some at the FOMC anticipate. The US Consumer Price Index, due to be released today, is expected to rise 0.5% through January, fuelled by higher gasoline prices. Even when removing the price volatility from Food and Energy, the Core CPI is expected to advance by 0.4% for a second month. Any upside surprised could support the greenback, as markets continue to adjust and heed the Federal Reserve’s forward guidance that higher rates are here for longer.

      Joe Biden has decided to announce Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard as his top economic advisor, joining previous prominent Fed official Janet Yellen in Biden’s top team. The white house hopes this will help with taming inflation and throughout the 2024 election.

      The dollar trades slightly lower down 0.16%, with the DXY currently supported at the 103 handle. Yesterday proved a good day for US equities, with the NASDAQ and S&P500 finishing 1.48% and 1.14% higher respectively.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      Singapore’s Deputy prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivered the annual budget. At a high level, the budget expects a slight budget deficit, as the state budget aims to help people with rising prices.

      India’s inflation will probably strengthen the view that the RBI needs to raise rates further. January’s gauge showed the headline figure move beyond the RBIs 2-6% target once again. Inflation surged to 6.5% YoY in January from 5.7% the month prior.

      Japan aims to incentivise industrial giants to invest in start-ups and new technology using tax reforms. To add to this the government is providing funds to help bridge the gap between research and commercialisation, effectively removing barriers for start-ups.

      ILS

      Constitution fears continue to dominate headlines, with reports of more than 70,000 people attending the demonstration held outside the Knesset yesterday as protestors vent their opposition to plans to curb judiciary powers.  

      USDILS was met with resistance yesterday as it tried to break the key 3.55 level. The move was relatively short-lived as a late selloff in the greenback saw the rally fade, with USDILS opening the morning back at the 3.51 handle

      Data & Events

      Euro-Area 4Q GDP, Employment

      US Jan CPI

      US Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism

    Risk Statement

    Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.

    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective Global Market Risk Solutions Advisor.
    0800 023 1440 from within the UK
    +44 207 367 7880 from overseas

    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary.

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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