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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • February 24, 2023

    UK consumer confidence jumps 7 points, the biggest increase since 2021. Euro-area core inflation hits a record high of 5.3%, whilst the headline number continues to fall in line with energy-prices. The dollar trades at 7-week highs as risk-appetite declines. 

    • FX Rates
      February 24, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.2020
      GBP/EUR1.1352
      EUR/USD1.0588
      USD/CAD1.3573
      EUR/CHF0.9903
      EUR/SEK11.0226
      EUR/NOK10.9353
      EUR/DKK7.4434
      USD/ILS3.6574
      AUD/USD0.6782
      NZD/USD0.6211
      USD/SGD1.3450
      USD/JPY135.14
      USD/CNH6.9540
      USD/INR82.7650
      EUR/ILS3.8705
      GBP/ILS4.3944
      USD/ZAR18.3388

    • GBP

      Optimism in British households amid the cost-of-living crisis rebounded in February, with signs of inflation cooling - the GfK consumer confidence indicator jumped 7 points to -38, the biggest increase since 2021.   

       The pound remains stable around the 1.2030 mark following the release although still remains down 0.07% on the week. 

       BOE policy maker Mann dictated on Thursday that the central bank should not consider the rate peak for now, as inflation is still in double-digits, despite already pushing rates to 4%. Mann stated that although hikes had been old by historic standards, they weren't perhaps aggressive enough. She further notes that the BOE has not appropriately factored in economic shocks from Covid-19 and the war, the low starting point of interest rates, and the public reaction to the economic shift. 

       Around 1.5mn UK local government employees have been offered a wage rise worth over  20 per cent over two years, for the lowest paid, adding to the pressure on MPs to make more generous offers to NHS and teaching staff. The offer covers care workers, school teaching assistants and refuse workers. 

      EUR

      Euro Area core inflation hit a record for January, with core price gains hitting 5.3%. The headline number continued its rapid decline, driven by lower energy prices. Economists estimate energy contributions to prices are down 2.3% since October. The core gauge adds more clout to ECB hawks, likely cementing the central banks plans to raise rates by a further 50bps next month. ECB member Nagel commented following the release, that “significant rate hikes may be needed beyond March”.  

      German GDP fell more than expected in Q4 last year, with the economy contracting 0.4% against estimates of a 0.2% decline, as households felt the strain of inflation and energy price pressures. Consumer confidence also printed weaker than forecast at -30.5. According to economists, these two components, along with falling manufacturing PMIs, all point towards a downturn in the German economy in the first quarter this year.  

      EURUSD has dipped below 1.0600 for the first time in 7-weeks, as risk appetite continues to wane. The Stoxx 50 trades 0.2% higher on open. 

      USD

      The US labour market phenomenon, coupled with continuously low jobless claims could propel FOMC members forward onto more rate hikes through the year. The intensity of layoffs remains low, and high consumer spending, and retail sales ensure that the unemployed are quickly reabsorbed into the workforce. Jobless claims declined this week to 192,000 from 195,000 the month prior. 

      To add to this, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is set to release today. The consensus is that the PCE deflator will moderate slightly to 4.3% YoY from 4.4% the month before. If core inflation continues to accelerate, this combined with an extremely robust labour market could provide the perfect storm for Federal Reserve tightening, which may dissipate any immediate hopes of a rate pause. 

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The yen gained slightly after BOJ nominee Kazuo Ueda said that the BOJ could begin toward normalising policy, including an end to JCB buying. Ueda spoke at parliament after data showing Japan’s CPI sped up to 4.3% in January, the fastest since 1981. 

      China warned the US’s top diplomat, as Consul General Gregory May made comments which were deemed as interference.  

      ILS

      Israel’s central bank called an extraordinary meeting of the Financial Stability committee amid market volatility and the depreciation of the shekel. The shekel has declined by more than 6% in the past month, as political turmoil has weighed on market confidence in the Israeli economy.  

      USDILS has rebounded upward after briefly trading below 3.6 yesterday. Currently trades around the 3.65 level, up 0.6% intraday.  

      Data & Events

      Spain Jan PPI 

      US PCE Deflator 

      Personal Income 

    Risk Statement

    Trading in financial instruments may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading in financial instruments can result in both loss and profit. Investors should carefully consider whether financial instruments suit their needs, financial resources and personal circumstances.

    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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