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    • Daily FX Update

    Daily FX Update

    • February 9, 2023

    EU leaders prepare to meet in Brussels to discuss the economy and Russia/Ukraine conflict. UK house prices fall to the lowest level since the global financial crisis. The US Dollar declines as markets digest recent Fedspeak. 

    Looking for some in-depth market insights? Check out our latest edition of SVB's FX Navigator 
    • FX Rates
      February 9, 2023

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.
      Source: Bloomberg

      GBP/USD1.2127
      GBP/EUR1.1271
      EUR/USD1.0758
      USD/CAD1.3412
      EUR/CHF0.9885
      EUR/SEK11.2226
      EUR/NOK10.9467
      EUR/DKK7.4415
      USD/ILS3.4912
      AUD/USD0.6970
      NZD/USD0.6360
      USD/SGD1.3228
      USD/JPY130.97
      USD/CNH6.7838
      USD/INR82.5325
      EUR/ILS3.7537
      GBP/ILS4.2310
      USD/ZAR17.7208

    • GBP

      RICS announced an eighth consecutive drop in UK House price Balance overnight to -47, the lowest level since the global financial crisis when it dropped to -80. The drop in January however was the smallest drop since July 2022. Households with mortgages coming up for a renewal still face a shock - BOE figures still show mortgages with 25% deposit are still above 5% in December, as well as about 1.7 million households remaining on tracker deals that are immediately exposed to changes in the Bank rate. 

      Andrew Bailey will speak later today - markets will be paying close attention to his tone following the dovish pivot last week. GBP has been struggling since the MPC's comments last week - If Bailey confirms another 50 bps rate hike at the next policy meeting, that could be seen as a hawkish sign and help the pair gather bullish momentum.

      The FTSE has gained 0.5% since the London open. GBPUSD was mixed yesterday, with the pair sitting up 0.4% this week in the 1.1205 region as we print. GBPEUR regained some momentum with the pair trading up 0.97% this week sitting in the 1.1275 region as we print. 

      EUR

      German harmonised inflation declined further in January, falling to 9.2% YoY against estimates of 10%. The five month low was likely thanks to government aid to help households manage rising energy costs. Whilst HICP inflation fell, national inflation figures ticked slightly higher, printing at 8.7% against 8.6% in December. Reports suggest the contrasting releases may be down to the rebasing of the national time series, from 2015 to 2020,  and changing the weights of items that make up the consumption basket. Either way, the noise surrounding the inflation print is likely to add clout to the ECBs recent hawkish rhetoric, which continued yesterday. Policymaker Klass Knot spoke, echoing recent comments that inflation may have peaked, however the pace of recent rate hikes may need to continue into May.

      World leaders arrive in Brussels today for the EU Summit, where the economy and ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict are expected to be on the agenda. It is likely the EU’s green subsidies plan, intended to be in response to the US’s Inflation Reduction Act, is to be discussed in-depth for the first time by the blocs leaders. Ukraine President Zelenskiy is also expected to speak, in attempt to lobby leaders into further support of military supplies as well encouraging EU membership talks.

      EURUSD trades 40bps higher this morning, amid broad Dollar weakness, the pair trades around the 1.0750 level at time of writing. European shares gained for a third straight session following a flurry of corporate earnings reports. The Stoxx 600 is up 80bps on London open, with technology and industrial stocks leading gains.

      USD

      Yesterday, Federal Reserve policymakers speaking at separate events echoed Powell, by welcoming the moderation in prices, however they cautioned that the fight was not yet won. NY Fed President, John Williams, said “We need to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy”, he also hinted that this policy would be needed for a few years. 

      US wholesale inventories recorded their smallest gain in December in over two years. This suggests that businesses nationwide are holding back new orders amid the double whammy of slowing sales and rising interest rates.  

      The dollar sold off through yesterday, before recovering to end the day flat. US equities closed lower, as markets come to terms with higher sustained interest rate expectations. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed down 1.7% and 1.1%. 

      ASIA/PACIFIC
      Adani stocks declined, ending a two-day rally, with flagship Adani Enterprises losing as much as 20%, after MSCI announced a review into the number of freely tradable shares. 

      Prominent Chinese economist Zhong, cited that there may be room to cut rates next quarter, as the rapid rebound in economic activity following the end of the Covid Zero policy reduced the need for tighter policy. 

      Asian currencies are mixed against the dollar following yesterday's Fedspeak. The Australian and New Zealand Dollar rallied, along with local yields, as discussions around a potential rate cut in China boosted sentiment. 
      ILS
      Further reports have been released demonstrating how the proposed changes to the judicial system may reduce investment into Israel, and subsequently weaken the shekel. 

      USDILS hit year-to-date highs during the early session, briefly trading above the 3.50 level, following the publication of the report.
      Data & Events
      EU leaders summit 
      Bank of England monetary policy report hearings 
      German inflation

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    The information contained in this material is solely for informational purposes only and it is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and cannot be relied upon as a representation that any particular transaction necessarily could have been or can be effected at the stated prices. This material does not contrue advice.

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    © 2023 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB).

    Silicon Valley Bank is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. FC029579. Silicon Valley Bank is authorised and regulated by the California Department of Business Oversight and the United States Federal Reserve Bank; authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority with number 577295; and subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Silicon Valley Bank is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group, a Delaware corporation and is an affiliate of SVB Financial Group UK Limited. SVB Financial Group UK Ltd is registered in England and Wales at Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR, UK under No. 5572575 and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, with reference number 446159. SVB Financial Group and its subsidiary Silicon Valley Bank are members of the Federal Reserve System and Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC.

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    Your eligible deposits with Silicon Valley Bank UK are protected up to a total of £85,000 by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, the UK's deposit guarantee scheme. Any deposits you hold above the limit are unlikely to be covered. Please click here for further information or visit http://www.fscs.org.uk. For more detailed information about coverage and limits, please review our FSCS Information Sheet at http://www.fscs.org.uk. 

    This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources. Opinions expressed are our opinions as of the date of this content only. The material is based upon information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

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