Asian and European stocks fall as Russian invasion could be ‘imminent’.
February 14, 2022
GBP/USD 1.3499 GBP/EUR 1.1933 EUR/USD 1.1313 USD/CAD 1.2781 EUR/CHF 1.0452 EUR/SEK 10.6758 EUR/NOK 10.1118 EUR/DKK 7.4396 USD/ILS 3.2564 AUD/USD 0.7092 NZD/USD 0.6598 USD/SGD 1.3478 USD/JPY 115.155 USD/CNH 6.3647 USD/INR 75.5838 EUR/ILS 3.6838 GBP/ILS 4.3958 USD/ZAR 15.2064
The pandemic has triggered an exodus of older labour from the workforce. The number of 50–64 year-olds who are economically inactive has risen by 250,000. This comes amid a backdrop of a national labour shortage.
The UK is on track to be the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year. GDP printed at 7.5% for 2021, the highest level since WWII. The Omicron variant slowed the recovery, with growth falling 0.2% in December, although beating expectations for a 0.6% decline. Prior to Monday’s open, the FTSE 100 traded down -0.15% and GBPUSD traded down 0.17% at 1.354.EUR
European stock futures fell as European conflict appears to be increasingly likely. Today, recently appointed German chancellor, Olaf Scholz will travel to Kiev and Moscow in a last-ditch double effort. Weeks of intense diplomatic action has failed to de-escalate tensions.
Germany re-elected Steinmeier as president. Czech inflation is expected to have accelerated to 9.3% up from 6.6% in December.
EURUSD trades down -0.06% as we print whilst European stock futures traded down -1.56% as of the European open. Brent crude trades up 1.33% at $95.70 as European-Russian tensions deteriorate.USD
The US was among other allies to instruct all citizens to leave Ukraine. Friday evening saw the White House issue warnings that Russian military action could begin prior to the end of the Beijing winter Olympics on the 20th February. The escalated tension pushed European and Asian equity markets lower, while Oil prices surged.
President Biden is planning to bring forward plans to issue new guidance on COVID-19 as the US ends the ‘full blown’ pandemic.
Friday was muted for US equities, the NASDAQ and S&P500 closed up 0.25%.ASIA/PACIFIC
The Australian PM is facing a major election defeat according to a new poll, falling behind the centre-left labour party by 10 points.
The BOJ offered to buy 5-10 year bonds at fixed rates aiming to wrestle recent yield rises, purchasing the current benchmark at 0.25%.
Asian equities have started bearishly in the Asian session. The Nikkei is down -2.23% and the Hang Seng down -1.41% as European tension impacts investor confidence.ILS
The expectation that an April/May BOI rate hike has strengthened, with the current probability at 50% for a second hike this year.
Last week saw USDILS rise 1.71% to trade around 3.2500, price action not seen since July last year.Data & Events
DE – Chancellor travels to Ukraine & Russia
DE – Sells bonds
EU – ECB Lagarde speaks
JP – GDP
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