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    • Daily FX Update

    Treasury yields soar, equities lower, dollar higher

    Scott Petruska Headshot
    Scott Petruska
    • January 18, 2022

    US 2-Yr Treasury yields moved above 1% and 10-Yr yields above 1.80%, levels not seen since before the pandemic. US equities are opening lower, as investors rotate from interest rate sensitive growth and tech stocks to value and European shares. Oil jumped to $85 a barrel, its highest level in seven years. The US dollar is higher on the back of the higher yields and a rebound following last week’s big dollar sell-off. Traders prepare for a week full of economic data.

    Economic data and events:

    Tuesday: Bank of Japan policy meeting, US Housing Market Index, Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Canada Housing Starts, UK Employment Data

    Wednesday: US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Canada CPI, UK CPI, PPI

    Thursday: US Existing home sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Eurozone CPI

    Friday: US Leading Economic Index, Canada Retail Sales, Eurozone Consumer Confidence, UK Retail Sales

    • FX Rates
      January 18, 2022

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.1363
      GBP/USD1.3589
      USD/CAD1.2523
      AUD/USD0.7180
      USD/JPY114.58
      USD/CNH6.3526
      USD/ILS3.1325
      USD/MXN20.3727
      USD/CHF0.9161
      USD/INR74.5813
      USD/BRL5.5204
      USD/SGD1.3504
      USD/DKK6.5504
      USD/SEK9.0944
      USD/NOK8.7786

    • USD

      The dollar moved higher against most G-10 currencies, only the CAD and JPY managed gains against it. Investors are digesting the sudden rise in US Treasury yields and commodity prices. Focus this week will continue to be on corporate earnings. This morning, Goldman Sachs trading revenue was worse-than-expected, pushing its stock price down by over 3% in premarket trading.

      GBP

      The UK pound fell earlier today in a strong dollar environment, even as UK labor data was better-than-expected. Unemployment fell to 4.1% in the quarter through November even as Omicron infections surged. Traders await inflation data to be released tomorrow.

      EUR

      The euro is little changed overnight, defying this morning’s stronger US dollar. The closely watched ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany unexpectedly rose in January due to assumptions that coronavirus cases will fall significantly in Q2. German bunds (bonds) approach positive yields for the first time since April 2019.

      CAD

      The Canadian dollar managed small gains against the strong US dollar, as crude oil prices soared to their highest levels since 2014. Traders also focus on next week’s Bank of Canada meeting when rates are expected to be hiked 15 bps from 0.25% to 0.40% on the back of a strong economy and rising inflation.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The Japanese yen rose slightly, despite soaring US Treasury yields, which typically would drive the USD/JPY currency pair higher. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged even as they revised upwards their inflation forecasts. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the bank was in no rush to change its ultra-loose monetary policy as board members still believe that inflation will move to around 1%, well below its 2% target.

      China’s central bank cut its policy rate for the first time in nearly a year in order to boost an economy struggling with a collapse of its real estate market and weak domestic consumption. The Chinese yuan initially rallied on the news, but then declined and is essentially unchanged from Friday’s close.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory

    Subscribe to receive the Daily FX Update in your inbox.

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.

    ©2022 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Scott Petruska
    WRITTEN BY
    Scott Petruska
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