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    • Daily FX Update

    Risk-off mood amid supply shortages, rising energy prices

    Scott Petruska Headshot
    Scott Petruska
    • October 4, 2021

    Global equity markets are lower amid concerns with the global supply crunch and rising energy prices. The ‘risk-off’ mood in markets is not benefiting the US dollar, as it typically would. Energy producer Norway saw its krone (NOK) outperform the other G-10 currencies. OPEC+ members meet today and will consider expanding output amid the spreading energy crisis – natural gas prices reached the highest level since 2014. US Treasuries are steady. Traders are already focusing on Friday’s US and Canada’s jobs reports for September, as they adjust positions for the final quarter of the year. China’s Golden Week holiday extends through Thursday.

    Economic Data:

     

    Monday: OPEC meeting, Japan CPI (Sep)

    Tuesday: US ISM (Sep), RBA policy decision, Eurozone PMI (Sep)

    Wednesday: RBNZ policy decision, Eurozone PPI and Retail Sales (Aug)

    Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 10/2)

    Friday: US Jobs Report (Sep), Canada Employment data (Sep)

    • FX Rates
      October 4, 2021

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.1629
      GBP/USD1.3619
      USD/CAD1.2579
      AUD/USD0.7295
      USD/JPY111.22
      USD/CNH6.4448
      USD/ILS3.2175
      USD/MXN20.5839
      USD/CHF0.925
      USD/INR74.3125
      USD/BRL5.4176
      USD/SGD1.3561
      USD/DKK6.3960
      USD/SEK8.7082
      USD/NOK8.5561

    • USD

      The dollar is lower following last week’s huge rally, and despite the market’s risk-off mood, when the dollar would typically gain in value. The dollar has been in a solid uptrend through the month of September, and traders may be lightening up long USD positions ahead of a week full of economic global data/events.

      GBP

      The UK pound continues a three-day rally after dropping to a low of $1.3412 last week. It was one of the worst performing currencies for the month of September. Today, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to disclose a new jobs program to replace the UK’s furlough program which just ended.

      EUR

      The euro has moved back above $1.16, in line with broad dollar weakness. Traders are still digesting last week’s report that German inflation rose to 4.1% in September, its highest level in 29 years. German politics are also being watched closely, as parties are maneuvering to form a coalition to govern the country for the next five years.

      CAD

      The USDCAD broke below C$1.26 for the time in several weeks, as Canada's energy sector benefits from soaring oil and natural gas prices. Canada’s Building Permits for August unexpectedly fell. Traders look forward to Friday’s jobs data for September.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      China’s markets are closed for the Golden Week holiday, which extends through Thursday.

      The new prime minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida (former Minister of Defense), announced that he will dissolve parliament on October 14 and hold a national general election on October 31. The Japanese yen trades steady over the weekend after last week’s sell-off, which saw the USDJPY reach an 18-month low.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.

    ©2022 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Scott Petruska
    WRITTEN BY
    Scott Petruska
    • View Author Profile
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