Risk-off mood amid supply shortages, rising energy prices

Global equity markets are lower amid concerns with the global supply crunch and rising energy prices. The ‘risk-off’ mood in markets is not benefiting the US dollar, as it typically would. Energy producer Norway saw its krone (NOK) outperform the other G-10 currencies. OPEC+ members meet today and will consider expanding output amid the spreading energy crisis – natural gas prices reached the highest level since 2014. US Treasuries are steady. Traders are already focusing on Friday’s US and Canada’s jobs reports for September, as they adjust positions for the final quarter of the year. China’s Golden Week holiday extends through Thursday.

Economic Data:

Monday: OPEC meeting, Japan CPI (Sep)

Tuesday: US ISM (Sep), RBA policy decision, Eurozone PMI (Sep)

Wednesday: RBNZ policy decision, Eurozone PPI and Retail Sales (Aug)

Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 10/2)

Friday: US Jobs Report (Sep), Canada Employment data (Sep)

FX Rates
October 4, 2021

Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

EUR/USD 1.1629
GBP/USD 1.3619
USD/CAD 1.2579
AUD/USD 0.7295
USD/JPY 111.22
USD/CNH 6.4448
USD/ILS 3.2175
USD/MXN 20.5839
USD/CHF 0.925
USD/INR 74.3125
USD/BRL 5.4176
USD/SGD 1.3561
USD/DKK 6.3960
USD/SEK 8.7082
USD/NOK 8.5561
USD
The dollar is lower following last week’s huge rally, and despite the market’s risk-off mood, when the dollar would typically gain in value. The dollar has been in a solid uptrend through the month of September, and traders may be lightening up long USD positions ahead of a week full of economic global data/events.
GBP
The UK pound continues a three-day rally after dropping to a low of $1.3412 last week. It was one of the worst performing currencies for the month of September. Today, UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to disclose a new jobs program to replace the UK’s furlough program which just ended.
EUR
The euro has moved back above $1.16, in line with broad dollar weakness. Traders are still digesting last week’s report that German inflation rose to 4.1% in September, its highest level in 29 years. German politics are also being watched closely, as parties are maneuvering to form a coalition to govern the country for the next five years.
CAD
The USDCAD broke below C$1.26 for the time in several weeks, as Canada's energy sector benefits from soaring oil and natural gas prices. Canada’s Building Permits for August unexpectedly fell. Traders look forward to Friday’s jobs data for September.
ASIA/PACIFIC
China’s markets are closed for the Golden Week holiday, which extends through Thursday.

The new prime minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida (former Minister of Defense), announced that he will dissolve parliament on October 14 and hold a national general election on October 31. The Japanese yen trades steady over the weekend after last week’s sell-off, which saw the USDJPY reach an 18-month low.

For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
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Source: Bloomberg

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WRITTEN BY

Scott Petruska

Risk-off mood amid supply shortages, rising energy prices