The US dollar is benefiting from safe haven as EU vaccine export ban nears and Turkish central bank head is replaced
The dollar is stronger this morning after giving up overnight gains that stemmed from the head of the Turkish central bank leaving. Concerns that Turkey may enter another period of FX volatility sent global investors into haven assets. Also, hedge funds have moved from being net sellers of the US dollar to net buyers over the past few weeks helping to drive the dollar higher this month.
Economic Data for this Week:
Tuesday: Current Account Balance for Q4 2020
Wednesday: Durable Goods Orders for Feb and PMI for March
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Q4 GDP final reading
Friday: PCE Deflator for Feb and Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March
March 22, 2021
EUR/USD 1.1916 GBP/USD 1.3831 USD/CAD 1.251 AUD/USD 0.7735 USD/JPY 108.78 USD/CNH 6.5094 USD/ILS 3.303 USD/MXN 20.7251 USD/CHF 0.9252 USD/INR 72.3737 USD/BRL 5.5392 USD/SGD 1.3416 USD/DKK 6.2403 USD/SEK 8.5260 USD/NOK 8.5012
The US dollar opened much stronger in early, overnight trading on news the Turkish lira had plunged in value following the sacking of the Turkish central bank head. Those gains were given back as the opening in the US approaches and the dollar now trades flat versus a basket of currencies.GBP
The pound is weaker this morning on overall dollar strength as news the European Union plans to ban export of vaccines produced in the EU. For the UK, the result would be less vaccinations thereby delaying the UK’s lifting of lockdowns and other economic restrictions.EUR
The euro lagged on the news of the Turkish central bank head being replaced. Some European banks may suffer due to exposure to the Turkish economy. Also, European leaders are discussing a ban on the export of vaccines produced in European countries in an effort to vaccinate more EU citizens.CADThe Canadian dollar is stable around the 1.25 level as the price of oil stabilizes after last week's sell-off.ASIA/PACIFICAsian currencies are mixed with overall dollar strength driving sentiment. With the US dollar facing a week of heavy US Treasury offerings FX traders are watching the 10-yr yield to see if it resumes its upward march thereby supporting the US dollar.
For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:
See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory
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