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FX Update

Dollar mixed, markets await US econ data, Fed speak and corp earnings


The US dollar is mixed and awaiting fresh direction. The UK pound rebounded slightly from two-year lows last week, but is still trading under the cloud of Brexit. The euro is in a tight trading range capped by dovish ECB. Better than expected data out of China provided a boost to Asian currencies.

Monday: July Empire Manufacturing Index

Tuesday: US June Retail Sales, Industrial Production, German ZEW Survey Expectations

Wednesday: US Housing Starts, UK CPI YoY, CA CPI YoY

Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims, US Leading Index

Friday: U. of Michigan Sentiment

  • FX Rates
    July 15, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    The dollar is mixed this morning as the US markets await fresh direction. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak tomorrow. Major lenders Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are due to deliver second quarter results this week.  

    The pound is trading lower this morning – not far from two-year lows versus the dollar. The currency remains under pressure from Brexit uncertainty and by the ongoing Conservative party leadership election process that determines who becomes prime minister. Final results should be known within two weeks. BoE Governor Carney commented that the central bank has the flexibility to respond in “any direction” when asked about Brexit’s impact on the UK economy. UK inflation and unemployment are out this week.
    The euro is slightly stronger this morning, but within a tight range that has persisted over the last several weeks. The cap likely comes from expectations for further dovish remarks from the ECB meeting next week. Markets have priced in an ECB rate cut of 10 bps in September and another 10 bps in March.
    Off of an 8-month high last week, the loonie fell slightly against the dollar. Oil held onto gains from the rally last week caused by increased Iran tensions, storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico and falling US stockpiles.

    Data out of China included an industrial output rebound from May’s 17-year low, a 9.8% increase in Retail Sales YoY and finally the Chinese GDP grew at 6.2% - the slowest rate in 30 years. Despite all the positive news, the Chinese yuan moved little.

    The aussie and kiwi were higher following the strong Chinese data. 

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About the Author

Kathryn Garvey is a foreign exchange Associate for Silicon Valley Bank’s global financial services group and has been with SVB since July of 2018. Prior to SVB Kathryn completed co-op internships at Innosight, Market Metrics, and The TJX Companies.

Garvey graduated from Northeastern University in 2018 with a bachelor’s degree in finance, and marketing with elective coursework in entrepreneurship and innovation from Northeastern University.

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