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FX Update

Trump tweets stock market will crash if he gets impeached while data shows strong US economy


The US dollar weakened after Trump’s tweet while the markets turn a wary eye to Washington and yet another testimonial in congress related to the Trump presidency. Second quarter economic data including a final reading for GDP came in as expected.

"Faced with intolerance and hatred, no debate is possible"
Jacques Chirac – President of France, 1995-2007
  • FX Rates
    September 26, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    The US Treasury announced an initial trade deal with Japan on agriculture, industrial goods and digital trade - they’re now working on phase two of the deal. US equities rallied yesterday as Trump stated that there’s a good chance of a trade deal with China and it could come “sooner than you think”. US GDP, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims and continuing claims data is released this afternoon.


    The pound weakened vs. the US dollar as political drama continues in the UK. The deadline to leave the EU is still set for October 31. PM Johnson has said many times that he will not ask the EU for an extension. Nor is there much progress on negotiations with the EU on a plan for a “soft” Brexit. Johnson has challenged the opposition Labor party to trigger an election with a no-confidence vote, which Labor said will not happen without an extension of the Oct 31 deadline.


    The euro is flat this morning after monthly German consumer confidence data came in better than expected. The World Trade Organization has said it will allow the US to impose circa $8bn of tariffs on EU goods due to illegal state aid being provided to Airbus. The tariffs could be imposed as soon as October with retaliatory steps likely from the EU.


    The Canadian dollar is modestly stronger this morning despite a weaker oil price and a business barometer index for September coming in weaker than expected. The US-imposed sanctions on Chinese oil tankers for delivering Iranian oil. The move is not expected to lead to significant disruption in overall oil supplies.


    The Japanese yen strengthened on overall dollar weakness and due to quarter-end fund flows. End of September marks the half-year for the Japanese fiscal calendar.
    Chinese authorities set the renminbi exchange rate at about the same level as yesterday. Beijing likely will hold the rate steady until after the October 1 celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the nation.

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About the Author

Peter Compton is a senior foreign exchange advisor for Silicon Valley Bank’s global financial services group, and has been with SVB since 2007. He helps clients design and implement hedging strategies for foreign currency exposures. Compton has over 20 years experience in global financial markets.

Before joining Silicon Valley Bank, Compton spent seven years working in the European equity markets. Based in Germany, he spent four years with HSBC and three years as Head of Equity Sales for ABN-AMRO in Frankfurt. Prior to his work overseas, Compton spent seven years with Bank of America in San Francisco as an equity and fixed income derivative specialist.

Compton holds a bachelor's degree in business and management from the University of Rhode Island and a Master's of Business Administration from San Francisco State University.
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