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    • Daily FX Update

    The much-anticipated June NFP numbers beat expectations sending the dollar lower in morning trading

    Peter Compton Headshot
    Peter Compton
    • July 2, 2021

    Financial markets are reacting to better than expected Non-Farm Payroll numbers with equities poised for new record high and a weaker dollar. US Treasury yields fell after the jobs report helping to weaken the dollar. Also, speculative positions are clouding the price action across markets as many traders unwind positions before the long weekend. Canadian dollar strengthens as the price of oil remains high. Expect volatility to remain high through much of FX trading today.

    “From every mountainside, let freedom ring.”

    Martin Luther King Jr.
    • FX Rates
      July 2, 2021

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.1831
      GBP/USD1.3761
      USD/CAD1.2388
      AUD/USD0.7482
      USD/JPY111.34
      USD/CNH6.4815
      USD/ILS3.2673
      USD/MXN19.8977
      USD/CHF0.9254
      USD/INR74.7450
      USD/BRL5.0215
      USD/SGD1.3492
      USD/DKK6.2850
      USD/SEK8.5915
      USD/NOK8.6478

    • USD

      The dollar spot indices are showing a weaker dollar after the jobs data for June. 

      Non-Farm Payrolls came in at +850K which was significantly better than the +720K expected. Prior month was also revised up to 583K. Surprisingly, the headline unemployment rate increased to 5.9% from 5.8%. Hedge fund and other leveraged speculators had made bets the dollar would rally regardless of the actual job numbers. Those wagers seem to be unwinding this morning.

      GBP

      The pound is flat despite losing ground to the greenback in the past six trading days. Delta variant Covid case increases in the UK have put the reopening of the UK economy in doubt. 

      EUR

      After initially gaining on the dollar, the euro is flat as we write. Bullish dollar positions are being unwound after the US jobs report.

      Overnight, Christine Lagarde said she believes inflation will steady below their target in the medium term, after climbing to 2% this year, it will fall to 1.5% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023. The euro has retraced slightly down 0.27% since yesterday’s high.

      CAD

      The Canadian dollar is stronger today on overall dollar weakness. Trading is volatile as the price of oil fluctuates.

      WTI Crude oil trades near the highest level since 2018, around $75. OPEC+ supply increase of 400,000 bpd now in doubt with focus turning to next month’s OPEC meeting.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The Japanese yen is stronger but holding above the 111 level. Lower US Treasury yields likely to reduce dollar-buying/yen-selling from Japanese investors.

      The Chinese renminbi strengthened on overall dollar weakness. The communist party in China is celebrating its 100th anniversary and monetary authorities are keen to keep the yuan steady going into the weekend.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory

    Subscribe to receive the Daily FX Update in your inbox.

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    Please note that we will continue to send you communications that we need to send you (for example, to keep you updated on operational changes to your account, a product or a service) or that we are required to send you by law.

     Source: Bloomberg
     

    This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.

    ©2022 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Peter Compton
    WRITTEN BY
    Peter Compton
    • View Author Profile
    • Email

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