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FX Update

Dollar strength continues after Q2 GDP beat expectations


US Q2 GDP beat forecasts, but fell from 3.1% to 2.1%. Trade talks and the FOMC meeting are both on the horizon for next week. The ECB signaled a rate cut and announced the resurrection of a bond buying program. With the ECB meeting complete, the markets are focusing on the new UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, the cabinet he is assembling, and Brexit.

"Deep summer is when laziness finds respectability."
Sam Keen, American Author
  • FX Rates
    July 26, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    The dollar’s strengthening continues as data beat forecasts. Q2 GDP fell to 2.1% from 3.1%, beating the forecast of 1.8%. The lower number was likely impacted by trade tensions with China. Trade talks with China are set to resume on July 30 in Shanghai. Yesterday’s strong Durable Goods numbers lessened the pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates next week.


    Boris Johnson faced his first question time in Parliament as Prime Minister and said he plans for the UK to leave the EU by October 31. Jean-Claude Junker repeated that the deal the UK has is the best they are going to get. The pound fell yesterday and the decline continued this morning to test the 1.2400 support


    The ECB signaled they are ready to cut interest rates for the first time since 2016 and restart a bond-buying program. The euro had a volatile day due to the news but ended close to where it opened. Retail Sales, which rose 0.5% MoM in June from -0.3 in May, fell 1.1% and fell to -0.8% YoY. Consumer Confidence rose to 102 from 101.


    The Canadian dollar is weakening again as oil is tracking sideways. There is no new data out today. The loonie lost a cent and a half against the USD this week. 


    The Shanghai Composite tracked higher and the Japanese Indexes declined. Australian and New Zealand dollars both strengthened and equities rose.

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About the Author

Laurence Hayward is the Senior Advisor for International Markets and Risk for Silicon Valley Bank in its Central Region. He is responsible for helping clients mitigate foreign exchange risk, including trade finance and international cash management.

Hayward has over 40 years in the foreign exchange and interest rate markets, with experience as a banker, broker, trader and marketer / advisor. He has worked in London, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, New York, Houston, Dallas, Santa Clara and Denver for Barclays International, First National Bank of Boston, Tullett and Tokyo Forex International, Gulf International Bank, NationsBank, Bank One, Cambridge Mercantile Corp. and Silicon Valley Bank. He has made presentations to the national AFP, the New Orleans AFP, the Houston TMA. Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce, the University of Colorado at Boulder, the KPMG Global Enterprise Institute in Denver, and many bank presentations on the subjects of foreign exchange, international risk, FASB accounting rules and quant analysis. He has also been published in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and many periodicals.
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