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FX Update

Weak data and diminished investor sentiment lead the markets

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The September ADP employment change fell to 135k from a revised 157k in August. The impeachment inquiry in the US continues with Kurt Volker set to testify tomorrow. Weak manufacturing data out of the US hit investor sentiment. Boris Johnson addressed the EU providing vague details on a revised Brexit plan.

"Patience is not simply the ability to wait - it's how we behave while we're waiting."
Joyce Meyer
  • FX Rates
    October 2, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    The dollar index fell slightly today. The impeachment inquiry of President Trump is still a key point of focus with former US representative to the Ukraine Kurt Volker set to testify in private tomorrow. Trump tweeted that the inquiry is tantamount to a “COUP”. Stocks fell yesterday as manufacturing data slid to a 10-year low for September hitting investor sentiment in the US.


    The pound is hovering around 2-year lows after Boris Johnson delivered vague details on his Brexit proposals and reiterated the threat that he could opt for a hard exit if no deal is reached. The suggested solution to the Irish backstop is to have two borders for four years and Northern Ireland would have a special relationship with the EU until 2025. Ireland's Simon Coveney said a time limited backstop would most likely be rejected.

    Yesterday’s manufacturing data came in higher than forecast but remain in the longest slump since 2009.


    The euro strengthened as the European Central Bank changed its economic benchmark today. ECB head Mario Draghi hinted that complementary fiscal policies to the ECB’s stimulus plan could end ultra-low interest rates. The US published a list of potential tariff targets worth roughly $25B today. The impression is that the US could introduce fresh tariffs as soon as this month.


    The Canadian dollar weakened as oil and gas output in July showed the largest fall since 2016. This in turn dragged down the July GDP.


    China is still closed for a holiday today. Equities in the region declined due to geopolitical tensions and weak US economic data. North Korea fired ballistic missiles into the sea - Japan said two missiles landed in the Sea of Japan.

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About the Author

Laurence Hayward is the Senior Advisor for International Markets and Risk for Silicon Valley Bank in its Central Region. He is responsible for helping clients mitigate foreign exchange risk, including trade finance and international cash management.

Hayward has over 40 years in the foreign exchange and interest rate markets, with experience as a banker, broker, trader and marketer / advisor. He has worked in London, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, New York, Houston, Dallas, Santa Clara and Denver for Barclays International, First National Bank of Boston, Tullett and Tokyo Forex International, Gulf International Bank, NationsBank, Bank One, Cambridge Mercantile Corp. and Silicon Valley Bank. He has made presentations to the national AFP, the New Orleans AFP, the Houston TMA. Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce, the University of Colorado at Boulder, the KPMG Global Enterprise Institute in Denver, and many bank presentations on the subjects of foreign exchange, international risk, FASB accounting rules and quant analysis. He has also been published in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and many periodicals.
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