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Daily
FX Update

Despite risk-on sentiment and Fed support for repo market the dollar follows global equities higher

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This morning the US dollar gained back all the lost ground from yesterday’s sell-off despite a general risk-on sentiment. Investors digested the Fed rate cut from Wednesday -along with other central bank activity- and decide US and global equities will continue this year’s bullish run.

“The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore they attempt the impossible, and achieve it, generation after generation”
Pearl Buck
  • FX Rates
    September 20, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.


  • USD

    The dollar, while up this morning, is stuck in a sideways trading pattern since early September. Earlier this week the Fed voted to cut rates 25bps and markets found the subsequent comments to be slightly more hawkish than anticipated. Despite this, the markets sold the dollar yesterday due to other central banks keeping rates unchanged. What had been considered a currency war is now viewed as sympathy for central banks as they struggle to maintain economic growth in a historically low interest rate environment.

    GBP

    The pound lost ground this morning on the back of overall US dollar bullishness. Yesterday, the Bank of England, as expected, voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.75%. The minutes from the meeting showed that policy makers believe that underlying growth has slowed but should remain positive with the UK potentially seeing weaker inflation should uncertainly around Brexit continue.

    EUR

    The euro lost ground to the dollar and other currencies on the back of German PPI data which came out at -0.5% this morning, significantly worse than the -0.2% which was forecasted.

    In a sign that liquidity is plentiful at the moment, the ECB’s latest offering to provide free loans to EU Banks was taken up by only 28 banks for circa EUR3.4bn, significantly below the predictions of EUR20-100bn.

    CAD

    The C-dollar lost value after retail sales for July (+0.4%) came in weaker than expected (+0.6%). The reading on consumer spending was the best in months and oil is higher so loonie weakness may not last.

    ASIA/PACIFIC

    The Indian rupee gained vs. the US dollar after initial concerns about an oil price shock abated. Indian equities rallied with global stocks and the rupee drops below 71 for the first time since early August.

    Australian dollar weakness picked up momentum after the A-dollar peaked last week. The aussie has been on a downward path since January 2018 as the Chinese economy, a huge importer of Australian commodities, continues to weaken.

     

Contact Us

For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/foreign-exchange

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About the Author

Peter Compton is a senior foreign exchange advisor for Silicon Valley Bank’s global financial services group, and has been with SVB since 2007. He helps clients design and implement hedging strategies for foreign currency exposures. Compton has over 20 years experience in global financial markets.

Before joining Silicon Valley Bank, Compton spent seven years working in the European equity markets. Based in Germany, he spent four years with HSBC and three years as Head of Equity Sales for ABN-AMRO in Frankfurt. Prior to his work overseas, Compton spent seven years with Bank of America in San Francisco as an equity and fixed income derivative specialist.

Compton holds a bachelor's degree in business and management from the University of Rhode Island and a Master's of Business Administration from San Francisco State University.
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