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    • Daily FX Update

    Strong economic data out of the US help support dollar while yen and franc sink

    Peter Compton Headshot
    Peter Compton
    • October 15, 2021

    The US dollar closes out a losing week on the upside as Retail Sales come in surprisingly stronger. Higher US Treasury yields – especially the rise in the 2yr support the dollar against other safe havens. The price of oil hits a three year high supporting the Canadian dollar and a jump in base metal prices help the Aussie.

    “If everything was perfect, you would never learn and you would never grow.”

    Beyonce
    • FX Rates
      October 15, 2021

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.1602
      GBP/USD1.3744
      USD/CAD1.2369
      AUD/USD0.7412
      USD/JPY114.40
      USD/CNH6.4340
      USD/ILS3.2234
      USD/MXN20.5549
      USD/CHF0.9246
      USD/INR75.2588
      USD/BRL5.4988
      USD/SGD1.3482
      USD/DKK6.4130
      USD/SEK8.6262
      USD/NOK8.4067

    • USD

      The dollar gains vs the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.  Retail Sales for September came in better (+0.7%) than forecasts (-0.2%) demonstrating the strength of the US consumer. For the quarter, consumer spending grew more slowly in Q3 vs. Q2 as the Delta variant spread and spending on services, like going out to restaurants, slowed.

      University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is due out later this morning.

      GBP

      The pound is quickly regaining all its losses relative to the US dollar from last month. Two Bank of England members have pushed back on talks of an imminent rate hike, contradicting comments made earlier in the week by Governor Andrew Bailey and other members. Despite remarks that a rate hike would be “self-defeating” and that financial conditions are already tightened; a rate rise remains priced in.

      EUR

      The euro continues to trade at its weakest levels since the end of last year.  While gains in yields for some government bonds in the US and UK have brought in additional investment, the sovereign bonds in Euroland have not seen as significant of increase. Also, the European Central bank is not expected to raise rates as quickly as other central banks.

      CAD

      The Canadian dollar is gaining again today vs. the Greenback as the price of oil hits new highs.  Also, economists now expect the central bank of Canada to begin to raise interest rates by next summer – well ahead of the Federal Reserve.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The Japanese yen is at a three-year low vs. the US dollar on the sudden increase in government bonds including the 2yr US Treasury and British Gilts.

      The Chinese renminbi briefly traded at its strongest level vs. the US dollar since June after Chinese authorities suggested any financial risks from the Evergrande fallout are “controllable” and unlikely to spread.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory

    Subscribe to receive the Daily FX Update in your inbox.

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     Source: Bloomberg
     

    This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.

    ©2022 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Peter Compton
    WRITTEN BY
    Peter Compton
    • View Author Profile
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    Insights from SVB Industry Experts

     
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