Strong economic data out of the US help support dollar while yen and franc sink

Strong economic data out of the US help support dollar while yen and franc sink

The US dollar closes out a losing week on the upside as Retail Sales come in surprisingly stronger. Higher US Treasury yields – especially the rise in the 2yr support the dollar against other safe havens. The price of oil hits a three year high supporting the Canadian dollar and a jump in base metal prices help the Aussie.

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    October 15, 2021

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  • USD

    The dollar gains vs the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.  Retail Sales for September came in better (+0.7%) than forecasts (-0.2%) demonstrating the strength of the US consumer. For the quarter, consumer spending grew more slowly in Q3 vs. Q2 as the Delta variant spread and spending on services, like going out to restaurants, slowed.

    University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is due out later this morning.


    The pound is quickly regaining all its losses relative to the US dollar from last month. Two Bank of England members have pushed back on talks of an imminent rate hike, contradicting comments made earlier in the week by Governor Andrew Bailey and other members. Despite remarks that a rate hike would be “self-defeating” and that financial conditions are already tightened; a rate rise remains priced in.


    The euro continues to trade at its weakest levels since the end of last year.  While gains in yields for some government bonds in the US and UK have brought in additional investment, the sovereign bonds in Euroland have not seen as significant of increase. Also, the European Central bank is not expected to raise rates as quickly as other central banks.


    The Canadian dollar is gaining again today vs. the Greenback as the price of oil hits new highs.  Also, economists now expect the central bank of Canada to begin to raise interest rates by next summer – well ahead of the Federal Reserve.


    The Japanese yen is at a three-year low vs. the US dollar on the sudden increase in government bonds including the 2yr US Treasury and British Gilts.

    The Chinese renminbi briefly traded at its strongest level vs. the US dollar since June after Chinese authorities suggested any financial risks from the Evergrande fallout are “controllable” and unlikely to spread.

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Peter Compton
Peter Compton

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