After 3 days of strength the US dollar is down slightly as markets prepare for tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll numbers

The US dollar begins the new quarter on its back foot as FX markets look to tomorrow's US jobs data and position for the long weekend. This morning's Initial Jobless Claims showed a strengthening labor market which most expected. The Japanese yen trades at its weakest levels of the year.

The price of oil is over $75bbl and trading close to its Oct 2018 highs. OPEC is expected to increase production but at a level designed to keep crude prices high.

“America is a tune.  It must be sung together.”

Gerald Stanley Lee
  • FX Rates
    July 1, 2021

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  • USD

    The dollar is weaker this morning after strengthening all week. 

    The US Department of Labor’s Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 26 came in at 364K vs. the prior week's revised 415K. Forecasts called for 388K so results are better than expected. However, Continuing Claims were higher than expected at 3,469K.

    ISM Manufacturing data and Construction spending data are due out later this morning.


    The pound is slightly stronger on overall dollar weakness. GBP lost 2% in June but is still up 1.6% vs. the US dollar for 2021. A Bank of England official stated that the central bank should not overreact to a temporary increase in inflation.


    The euro is stronger vs. the US dollar this morning after 3 consecutive days of losses. For the month of June, the euro lost 3% vs. the greenback and is down 3.4% for the year.

    ECB policy makers are to hold a special meeting in Frankfurt next week to wrap up the institution’s strategy review – with the central bank planning to put a new definition on price stability.


    The Canadian dollar is stronger on higher oil prices and overall dollar weakness. OPEC+ will meet today to decide whether to hike oil output over the next few months or whether to hold off for a little longer – 50k barrels a day hike is priced in, so any surprises either side will shock the markets. WTI trades close to $76 as we print.


    The Japanese yen is trading above 111 and at its weakest levels since the early days of the pandemic. 

    The Australian dollar struggles to hang onto gains vs. the US dollar. Higher oil prices may boost the outlook for the A-dollar but rising Covid cases make investors weary.

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Peter Compton
Peter Compton

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