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FX Update

Resurgent US jobs strengthen dollar while markets await this week’s comments from Fed chair Powell to congress

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The US dollar has regained most of the losses since the Fed last signaled a willingness to cut rates following the FOMC meeting in mid-June. The strong jobs data on Friday erased market expectations of three rate cuts in 2019. Stronger global economic prospects are helping commodity currencies especially the Canadian dollar. The Turkish lira plunges after Erdogan fires head of central bank.

Wednesday: Minutes from Federal Reserve’s June meeting

Thursday: Consumer Price Index for June

Friday: Producer Price Index for June

  • FX Rates
    July 8, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    Friday’s firm nonfarm payrolls report weighed on market expectations regarding the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The above forecast reading of 224,000 jobs added to the workforce was an upward surprise to markets, with some participants anticipating the positive data to allow the Fed some breathing space. Chairman Powell will present his view of the economy to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. The central bank remains under pressure from President Trump to pursue a lower interest rate environment.


    The pound is slightly stronger vs. the US dollar in volatile trading as FX traders weigh the prospect of a “no-deal” Brexit.  Boris Johnson reiterates his willingness to a hard Brexit and looks set to secure a convincing victory over his competitor Jeremy Hunt in the contest to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. A YouGov poll indicated 74% of party members would back Boris Johnson.


    The euro is up modestly vs. the US dollar as EU finance ministers meet this week.  In Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis is set to become prime minster after the center-right New Democracy party secured election victory with 39.7% of the vote. ECB member Francois Villeroy de Galhau confirmed the role of the central bank was to maintain price stability and not to set foreign exchange levels.


    The Canadian dollar continues to strengthen vs. the US dollar as the Canadian economy shows robust growth and the price of oil gains. CAD is up 3.4% since June 1.


    Australian and New Zealand dollars are both stronger today as commodity prices rise despite Friday’s US dollar rally. Japan and South Korea’s currencies are both weaker as decades old tensions lead to some technology trade threats. 

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About the Author

Peter Compton is a senior foreign exchange advisor for Silicon Valley Bank’s global financial services group, and has been with SVB since 2007. He helps clients design and implement hedging strategies for foreign currency exposures. Compton has over 20 years experience in global financial markets.

Before joining Silicon Valley Bank, Compton spent seven years working in the European equity markets. Based in Germany, he spent four years with HSBC and three years as Head of Equity Sales for ABN-AMRO in Frankfurt. Prior to his work overseas, Compton spent seven years with Bank of America in San Francisco as an equity and fixed income derivative specialist.

Compton holds a bachelor's degree in business and management from the University of Rhode Island and a Master's of Business Administration from San Francisco State University.
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