The US dollar is poised to gain for a third consecutive day after US CPI data came in higher than expected. Many FX speculators have placed large bets over the past couple months that will pay-off if the US dollar strengthens, but speculative bets can be unwound quickly often leading to a sudden reversal in exchange rates. The Japanese yen is weaker again today on higher global inflation and interest rate expectations.
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October 13, 2021
EUR/USD 1.1547 GBP/USD 1.3613 USD/CAD 1.2455 AUD/USD 0.7339 USD/JPY 113.65 USD/CNH 6.4423 USD/ILS 3.2342 USD/MXN 20.7609 USD/CHF 0.9288 USD/INR 75.3737 USD/BRL 5.5405 USD/SGD 1.3538 USD/DKK 6.4431 USD/SEK 8.7585 USD/NOK 8.5352
The dollar rebounded from overnight losses after monthly September CPI data (+0.4%) came in higher than expected (+0.3%) leading investors to believe the Federal Reserve will move forward with tapering bond purchases later this year. FOMC minutes from the September 22 meeting are due out later this morning.GBP
The British pound gained overnight on stronger than expected economic data. Industrial Production for August was +0.8% vs. the 0.2% forecast. Construction and Services were weaker than expected so GDP numbers for August (+0.4%) came in lower than forecast (+0.5%).EUR
The euro rebounded overnight from its weakest point vs. the US dollar since summer 2020. However, those gains were given back after this morning’s US inflation data. German CPI data for September came in as expected at 4.1%.
European Central Bank member Villeroy commented yesterday that the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will likely end as scheduled in March next year. However, the fixed quantitative easing scheme may need to be held as a policy tool for future monetary policy response.CAD
The Canadian dollar strengthened overnight on overall US dollar weakness. The gains in the C-dollar came despite the price of oil dropping from recent highs. However, the US inflation data reversed the overnight trend and the loonie is weakening as we write. The International Energy Agency warned the world is failing to invest in energy on the scale needed to escape catastrophic climate change.ASIA/PACIFIC
The Japanese yen is trading at the weakest level in almost 3 years and has now lost almost 4% vs. the US dollar since the Fed meeting on September 23. The yen is seen as a losing currency in a higher inflationary environment.
Demand for Chinese dollar bonds dropped in September as the Evergrande situation continues to weigh on markets. The renminbi remains in a trading range of between 6.42 and 6.50 since June.
For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:
See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory
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