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    • Daily FX Update

    The US dollar strengthens after September CPI comes in higher than expected

    Peter Compton Headshot
    Peter Compton
    • October 13, 2021

    The US dollar is poised to gain for a third consecutive day after US CPI data came in higher than expected. Many FX speculators have placed large bets over the past couple months that will pay-off if the US dollar strengthens, but  speculative bets can be unwound quickly often leading to a sudden reversal in exchange rates. The Japanese yen is weaker again today on higher global inflation and interest rate expectations.

    “Skill is only developed by hours and hours of work.”

    Usain Bolt
    • FX Rates
      October 13, 2021

      Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

      EUR/USD1.1547
      GBP/USD1.3613
      USD/CAD1.2455
      AUD/USD0.7339
      USD/JPY113.65
      USD/CNH6.4423
      USD/ILS3.2342
      USD/MXN20.7609
      USD/CHF0.9288
      USD/INR75.3737
      USD/BRL5.5405
      USD/SGD1.3538
      USD/DKK6.4431
      USD/SEK8.7585
      USD/NOK8.5352

    • USD

      The dollar rebounded from overnight losses after monthly September CPI data (+0.4%) came in higher than expected (+0.3%) leading investors to believe the Federal Reserve will move forward with tapering bond purchases later this year. FOMC minutes from the September 22 meeting are due out later this morning.

      GBP

      The British pound gained overnight on stronger than expected economic data. Industrial Production for August was +0.8% vs. the 0.2% forecast. Construction and Services were weaker than expected so GDP numbers for August (+0.4%) came in lower than forecast (+0.5%). 

      EUR

      The euro rebounded overnight from its weakest point vs. the US dollar since summer 2020. However, those gains were given back after this morning’s US inflation data. German CPI data for September came in as expected at 4.1%. 

      European Central Bank member Villeroy commented yesterday that the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will likely end as scheduled in March next year. However, the fixed quantitative easing scheme may need to be held as a policy tool for future monetary policy response. 

      CAD

      The Canadian dollar strengthened overnight on overall US dollar weakness. The gains in the C-dollar came despite the price of oil dropping from recent highs. However, the US inflation data reversed the overnight trend and the loonie is weakening as we write. The International Energy Agency warned the world is failing to invest in energy on the scale needed to escape catastrophic climate change.

      ASIA/PACIFIC

      The Japanese yen is trading at the weakest level in almost 3 years and has now lost almost 4% vs. the US dollar since the Fed meeting on September 23. The yen is seen as a losing currency in a higher inflationary environment.

      Demand for Chinese dollar bonds dropped in September as the Evergrande situation continues to weigh on markets. The renminbi remains in a trading range of between 6.42 and 6.50 since June.

    Contact Us

    For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:

    Contact your respective SVB FX Advisor or the SVB FX Advisory Team at fxadvisors@svb.com.
    See all of SVB's latest FX information and commentary at www.svb.com/trends-insights/foreign-exchange-advisory

    Subscribe to receive the Daily FX Update in your inbox.

    By providing your email address and clicking on the Subscribe button below, you consent to receive emails from Silicon Valley Bank for your chosen categories. You also consent to the terms of our Privacy Notice. If you have privacy questions, you may contact us at PrivacyOffice@svb.com. You can withdraw your consent at any time.

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    Please note that we will continue to send you communications that we need to send you (for example, to keep you updated on operational changes to your account, a product or a service) or that we are required to send you by law.

     Source: Bloomberg
     

    This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.

    ©2022 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.

    The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

    Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal, accounting and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.

    Peter Compton
    WRITTEN BY
    Peter Compton
    • View Author Profile
    • Email

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