FX Update

Non-Farm Payroll numbers came in better than expected confirming Fed will hold rates


The much anticipated jobs data (+263K) for April came in better than expected (+190) with some noise caused by hiring for the census. Wage data (+3.3%) was more or less in line with forecasts. The dollar first gained then lost ground as traders weighed the jobs data in light of the dollar's strengthening trend since end of January.

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  • FX Rates
    May 3, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    The dollar is weaker as traders closed bullish positions set earlier in the week.  Attention will now turn to trade talks with China which will continue next week in Washington D.C. The US Chamber of Commerce has said that China trade talks are now close to completion, with progress continuing to be made. However it seems unlikely that China will agree to cut back on industrial subsidies.


    The pound strengthened on general dollar weakness. UK Services and Composite PMI data came in slightly better than expected. The Bank of England kept monetary policy on hold yesterday as expected. However, Governor Mark Carney did indicate that one rate hike may be needed to keep inflation in check, and that should we see a smooth Brexit transition. “It will require interest rate increases over that period and it will require more and more frequent interest rate increases than the market currently expects.”


    The euro weakened overnight after PPI data for Eurozone came in weaker than expected. CPI data came in very slightly better than expected. In Europe, German Bundesbank President Weidmann has stated that the growth slump was still seen as temporary, and that a pick up is expected.


    The Canadian dollar is stable today after weakening yesterday due to a $2 per barrel drop in the price of oil.


    Data on building approvals disappointed causing the Australian dollar to hit its weakest point since January 2016. 

    The Chinese renminbi weakened slightly in the offshore market after April manufacturing data fell. The trade talks between the US and China were described as “productive" by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin – which may mean they got very little done. More talks are scheduled next week in Washington D.C.

    Japan’s markets remained closed for Golden Week.

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About the Author

Peter Compton is a senior foreign exchange advisor for Silicon Valley Bank’s global financial services group, and has been with SVB since 2007. He helps clients design and implement hedging strategies for foreign currency exposures. Compton has over 20 years experience in global financial markets.

Before joining Silicon Valley Bank, Compton spent seven years working in the European equity markets. Based in Germany, he spent four years with HSBC and three years as Head of Equity Sales for ABN-AMRO in Frankfurt. Prior to his work overseas, Compton spent seven years with Bank of America in San Francisco as an equity and fixed income derivative specialist.

Compton holds a bachelor's degree in business and management from the University of Rhode Island and a Master's of Business Administration from San Francisco State University.
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