March trade data for China showed growth leading markets to sell the safe-haven US dollar
April 12, 2019
The dollar is weaker today and for the week after markets became optimistic overnight following a rebound in Chinese exports. Data also showed credit growing in China. European industrial production data was better than expected, strengthening the euro. The UK pound is also up on relief that the UK will not be crashing out of the EU today.
Walter Savage Landor
“We are no longer happy so soon as we wish to be happier.”
April 12, 2019
EUR/USD 1.1312 GBP/USD 1.3113 USD/CAD 1.3330 AUD/USD 0.7183 USD/JPY 111.94 USD/CNH 6.7084 USD/ILS 3.5693 USD/MXN 18.7612 USD/CHF 1.0006 USD/INR 69.1600
The safe haven dollar heads for a losing week after sentiment turned positive for the Chinese economy, and after other global data generally came in better than expected. The dollar is up slightly for the year, but faces headwinds as uncertainty fades around Brexit, the Eurozone economy and trade talks. The Fed is clearly on hold for the rest of 2019 leaving markets to wonder what would cause the dollar to strengthen.GBP
The pound is stronger today after the UK accepted the EU’s offer to extend the Brexit deadline to Halloween, meaning the UK will not leave the European Union today as previously scheduled.EUR
The euro is stronger as Eurozone industrial production figures showed a contraction that was smaller than expected. The prior month was also revised favorably.CAD
The Canadian dollar is stronger today after strong Chinese trade and loan data led to market optimism; additionally, oil continues its march higher since December.ASIA/PACIFIC
The Chinese renminbi gained after exports rebounded strongly in March following a weak February. Imports were down, thereby growing the trade surplus significantly.
The Aussie dollar is up strongly this morning on the back of strong trade data out of China, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing a downbeat economic outlook.
For more analysis on FX markets or information regarding SVB's FX services:
Subscribe to receive the Daily FX Update in your inbox.
Thank you for subscribing to SVB's Daily FX Update.
You’re almost done. Please check your email box and follow the instructions to confirm your subscription. If you did not receive an email please check your Spam or Bulk E-Mail folder just in case the confirmation email got delivered there instead of your inbox. If so, select the confirmation message and mark it Not Spam, which should allow future messages to get through. We also suggest you whitelist the svb.com domain.
Please note that we will continue to send you communications that we need to send you (for example, to keep you updated on operational changes to your account, a product or a service) or that we are required to send you by law.
This article is intended for U.S. audiences only.
©2018 SVB Financial Group. All rights reserved. Silicon Valley Bank is a member of the Federal Reserve System. Silicon Valley Bank is the California bank subsidiary of SVB Financial Group (Nasdaq: SIVB). SVB, SVB FINANCIAL GROUP, SILICON VALLEY BANK, MAKE NEXT HAPPEN NOW and the chevron device are trademarks of SVB Financial Group, used under license.
The views expressed in this email are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.
Foreign exchange transactions can be highly risky, and losses may occur in short periods of time if there is an adverse movement of exchange rates. Exchange rates can be highly volatile and are impacted by numerous economic, political and social factors, as well as supply and demand and governmental intervention, control and adjustments. Investments in financial instruments carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before entering any foreign exchange transaction, you should obtain advice from your own tax, financial, legal and other advisors, and only make investment decisions on the basis of your own objectives, experience and resources.