FX Update

US retail sales beat expectations driving the dollar higher against other major currencies


Strong data out of the US drove the greenback higher against major peers this morning. Brexit uncertainty – and uncertainty about future leadership has kept the pound under pressure. European investors are listening closely for a dovish stance out of the ECB.
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  • FX Rates
    June 14, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD
    The greenback gained against the majors today after better than expected retail sales were announced. Retail sales beat expectations at 0.5% vs 0.4% expected. This may give the Fed reason to pause a possible rate cut in the near term. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today.

    The pound remained under pressure today after an expectedly quiet day in the UK. Reports have emerged that Conservative leader hopefuls are in private talks to join forces to ensure current favorite, Boris Johnson, is not elected. Johnson has said he plans to leave the EU by Oct. 31 and while an agreement is preferred, has not ruled out a hard Brexit.

    After strong US data, the euro dollar pair broke below 1.1251 – a minor support level. Prior to the release, fundamental support for the euro was limited, which made it easier for the strength of the dollar to have a greater impact.  European investors are looking towards the ECB’s comments to see if they take a more dovish stance on economic policy as data out of the eurozone continues to disappoint. German wholesale prices and French inflation missed expectations.
    The loonie was mixed amongst G-10 currencies. WTI crude prices dropped slightly after the International Energy Agency said global oil supplies will outweigh demand and squeeze OPEC in 2020. The loonie is slightly weaker against the USD after upbeat data out of the US.  
    Chinese industrial output slowed to 5% in May vs 5.4% in April – the slowest pace since 2002. Fixed asset investment slowed to 5.6% vs 6.1%. Retail sales accelerated to 8.6% from 7.2% YoY, helped by a holiday weekend. Weak data may lead China to implement more stimulative measures.
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About the Author

Kathryn Garvey is a foreign exchange Associate for Silicon Valley Bank’s global financial services group and has been with SVB since July of 2018. Prior to SVB Kathryn completed co-op internships at Innosight, Market Metrics, and The TJX Companies.

Garvey graduated from Northeastern University in 2018 with a bachelor’s degree in finance, and marketing with elective coursework in entrepreneurship and innovation from Northeastern University.

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