FX Update

A mixed jobs report for March first sends dollar up then down as data confuses market

USD initially strengthened this morning after markets knee-jerk reaction to stronger jobs numbers; however, the details confirm a slowdown in job creation so far in 2019.

March payroll numbers (+196K) beat expectations (+177K). Although the two prior months were revised 14K higher, the revision largely disappointed whisper numbers of +100K. Wages (+3.2%) were a bit weaker than expected (+3.4%).

China trade talks continue today after Trump said discussions could continue for “weeks”.

“Common Sense is instinct, and enough of it is genius.”


Josh Billings
  • FX Rates
    April 5, 2019

    Rates are not real time. Rates are today's indicative mid-market rates as of time of publishing, which may vary. Please contact SVB for a current quote.

  • USD

    Trade talks in the US continue today after both sides commented that discussions were generally going well. But stripping off the first layer shows that many of the key issues have yet to be resolved – tariffs, protecting intellectual property and enforcement. The next round of talks have yet to be scheduled.


    The pound is weaker this morning after PM Theresa May announces plans to request a further extension to Brexit deadline. Conservative and Labor are due to continue their intensive talks today as they look to reach a deal that can be approved by both sides' MPs.


    The euro is flat this morning and flat for the week vs. the US dollar, despite some awful economic data from Euroland.

    EU President Donald Tusk is reported to have offered the UK a 12-month exit to Article 50, but with the ability to exit early should a satisfactory Brexit deal be reached.

    The euro reacted little when German Industrial Production figures for February (+0.7%) came in better than expected and the prior month was revised upward.


    The Canadian dollar is weak again today despite oil price increasing after the US jobs report. Oil is up for the fifth week in a row and up 3% just this week. Tight supply has been lifting oil as all commodities seem to be doing well.

    Canadian jobs report this morning for March came in at a loss of 7K jobs, weaker than expected, but following a very strong (+56K) month for February.


    The Japanese yen has been lower for the second week in a row on positive risk sentiment in the global markets.

    China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are all on holiday today.

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