FX Outlook

 

FX Daily; FX Outlook; Asia
May 03, 2016 Posted by

 Overview

Given the overall weakness in USD, PBOC set the onshore CNY fixing rate at 6.4589 against the USD last Friday, up 365 basis points from Thursday.  It was the biggest upward move since 2005.  

USD dropped to its lowest level in 18 months against the JPY after the Bank of Japan’s decision to refrain from further easing disappointed markets.

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index (PMI) at 50.1 in April, Vs estimate of 50.3 and 50.2 in March.1

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said on Friday that it will allow banks to issue more FX-related FX products for hedging purpose, and hold bigger short-USD positions at the end of day. 2

USD/CNH exchange rate has been range-bound.

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FX Daily; FX Outlook; Asia
May 03, 2016 Posted by

Overview

o Given the overall weakness in USD, PBOC set the onshore CNY fixing rate at 6.4589 against the USD last Friday, up 365 basis points from Thursday.  It was the biggest upward move since 2005.   

o USD dropped to its lowest level in 18 months against the JPY after the Bank of Japan’s decision to refrain from further easing disappointed markets.

o China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index (PMI) at 50.1 in April, Vs estimate of 50.3 and 50.2 in March.1

o The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said on Friday that it will allow banks to issue more FX-related FX products for hedging purpose, and hold bigger short-USD positions at the end of day. 2 

o USD/CNH exchange rate has been range-bound.

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FX Outlook
April 28, 2016 Posted by
BOJ surprised the market with no changes to ETF purchases or a rate cut in the loans support program.
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FX Outlook; Startups; Technology; Venture Capital; Asia; Europe; U.S.
April 28, 2016 Posted by
A UK departure from the world’s largest economic bloc has gone from a distant unlikelihood to a very possible reality—and markets are speculating on what that reality might mean for the UK economy.
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FX Outlook; Startups; Technology; Venture Capital; Asia; Europe; U.S.
April 18, 2016 Posted by
The resulting choppy markets caused a flight to safety due to U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen’s comments this week. The Japanese yen and Euro strengthened along with currencies in emerging markets & commodity currencies as the threat of higher U.S. interest rates receded.
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FX Outlook; Startups; Technology; Venture Capital; Asia; Europe; U.S.
March 30, 2016 Posted by

Another factor that has added to the volatility in the FX market has been the fluctuations in energy prices. This particular influence has augmented the currency rate of countries that are large exporters of petroleum. 

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FX Outlook
March 21, 2016 Posted by

The holiday-shortened week is off to a fairly quiet start so far. In the FX space, the USD started out the Asian session with a decent bid tone, however, these gains were given back during London trading and

 
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FX Outlook; Startups; Technology; Venture Capital; Asia; Europe; U.S.
March 07, 2016 Posted by
In February 2016 the lack of transparency with oil prices and all things related to China have created unsettled global investors, leading to choppy markets and a flight to safe-haven currencies, while emerging market and commodity currencies generally underperformed.
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FX Daily; FX Outlook; Asia
February 24, 2016 Posted by

Overview

  • The onshore RMB fix came out almost 1% stronger on Feb 15, 2016 at 6.5118.  After the fixing, RMB continued its rally to 6.4950 – making it the biggest one day gain in 10 years.
  • PoBC Governor Zhou pushed back on expectation of a sharp devaluation and tightened capital controls. 
  • Downgrading of Fed hike expectation and additional quantitative easing by Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) suppress G3 rates outlook which in turn may give some much needed breathing room for the RMB.     
  • Capital outflow remains a key concern that could exasperate further currency weakness.  The saving grace is what still looks like a healthy trade surplus.  
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FX Outlook; Startups; Technology; Venture Capital; Asia; Europe; U.S.
February 09, 2016 Posted by
January 2016 was one of the toughest months on record for global financial markets.  Currency markets took it on the chin, as did commodities and equities.  A relief rally in oil at month-end did spark a recovery in many markets.
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