FX Daily


FX Daily
September 11, 2015 Posted by
The USD has rebounded from overnight lows and most currency pairs are been range bound with little market moving news. Equities are relatively flat with S&P -0.35%, treasury yields -4bps to 2.18% and Crude prices down 3% to $44.30. One pair worth noticing is EURCHF which popped above 1.10 for the first time since SNB scrapped the EUR peg in Jan.  USDJPY stayed sideline and comments from LDP lawmaker Yamamoto that Yen weakness would help Japan’s economy didn’t get much traction like it did on Thur when USDJPY jumped 1 big figure.  GBPUSD slipped marginally on disappointing UK construction data.  USDCNH bounced 300 pts after yesterday’s suspected intervention.  PBOC announced they will change the methodology of calculating Reserve Requirement Ratios effective Sep 15.  They added that it could release liquidity in some situations and boost liquidity when it is lacking. 

Elsewhere, Malaysia, Korea and Russia kept rates on hold as expected.  US PPI (ex food & energy) was flat and preliminary Michigan Sentiment dipped.  We’re still in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC on Sep 17.   This weekend we get Chinese retail sales and industrial production data which could create some ripples and next week we have rates decisions in Thailand, Indonesia and Chile.  

Key Events
• Central Banks in Korea, Malaysia and Russia kept rates on hold as expected
• U. Michigan sentiment plunged to 85.7 in Sep vs 91.1 expected
• U.S. PPI was flat in Aug vs -0.1% forecast
• U.S. budget gap forecast to narrow to-$62.4 bln (med -$84.0 bln) vs -$149.2 bln
• Crude back below $45 after Goldman cut 2015-16 crude price targets
• ECB's Coeure: Eurozone growth too weak to boost job creation sufficiently
• China changes the methodology of calculating RRR

Looking Ahead
09/12 CNY:  Retail Sales and Industrial Production (Aug)
09/14 EUR: German/Spain CPI Reports (Aug)
09/15 EUR:  German Zew Survey
09/15 USD: US Retail Sales
09/15: CLP:  Chile CB decision (no change at 3.00% expected)
09/16 USD:  US CPI & TIC Flows
09/16 THB:  Thailand CB rates decision (no change 1.50% exp)
09/16 IDR:   Bank Indonesia rates decision (no change 7.50% exp)
09/17 USD:  FOMC, C/A, Housing data

FX Indications
EUR 1.1318
JPY 120.5300
GBP 1.5416
CAD 1.3296
AUD 0.7063
NZD 0.6296
CHF 0.9743
SEK 8.2631
ILS 3.8780
INR 66.5450
CNY 6.3751
CNH 6.4125
KRW 1184.7500
BRL 3.8867
MXN 16.8400
RUB 68.102

Stock Indices
Dow          16,289
Nasdaq      4,769
S&P          1,943
TSX          13,442
FTSE         6,128
DAX         10,173
Nikkei       18,264
Shanghai   3,200

Crude 44.31
Gold 1101.09

U.S. Treasuries
2 Year 0.705
3 Year 1.024
5 Year 1.503
10 Year 2.172
30 Year 2.925
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FX Daily
September 10, 2015 Posted by
Volatile markets persists as the USD whipsaws and commodities surges, while most major equities markets are calmer today.
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FX Daily
September 09, 2015 Posted by
The dollar is firmer although volatility remains elevated with global equities rallying.  Markets were off to the races after China’s finance ministry assured that they will adopt “stronger fiscal policies to support growth.”  Stocks in Shanghai climbed 2.3% and Nikkei jumped a whopping 7.7%, the strongest rally since 2008!
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FX Daily
September 04, 2015 Posted by
The highly anticipated U.S. jobs reports was released today with mixed results.  The headline number (new payrolls) was a bit lower than expected, adding 173K jobs in August vs. the anticipated 220K, but July was revised higher, hourly earnings advanced, and the much publicized unemployment rate is now at a 7-year low @ 5.1%.
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FX Daily
September 03, 2015 Posted by
Global equities continue to recover off the recent lows as Chinese markets were closed and European stocks rallied after ECB President Draghi’s comments related to rates (no change) and adding to its QE program to promote growth in the Euroland region.  The USD is stronger across the board via positive headline news, the absence of China-related concerns, and tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report for August.
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FX Daily
September 02, 2015 Posted by
The global selloff in equities has let up today, with U.S. equities halting a two-day rout and China’s stock market now closed for the week.  In response of the turnaround, U.S. treasury yields are higher and the USD is also firmer across the board.
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FX Daily
September 01, 2015 Posted by
The new month begins with more volatility via global manufacturing reports, all pointing to lower output and a possible global slowdown.  O/n equities all traded lower starting in Asia following China posted their PMI report for August falling below the key 50.0 level (3yr low).  European stocks followed lower after posting their own weakening PMI report, followed by the U.S. opening quickly lower (nearly 2 percent) via lower manufacturing reports in the U.S.
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FX Daily
August 31, 2015 Posted by
The week opens with elevated opinions surrounding the Fed’s possible rate hike at their next meeting on 9/17.  Last week’s Jackson Hole symposium attended by the world’s leading central bankers added to the speculation surrounding the Fed’s next move.
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FX Daily
August 28, 2015 Posted by
The hectic week closes relatively quiet with the USD holding up vs. the majors via an economic report in the U.S. showing the consumer in July continues to be resilient/strong and corresponding incomes remain healthy, both adding to speculation the economy will remain strong despite China’s current slowdown.
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FX Daily
August 24, 2015 Posted by
The week opens with a new wave of selling in global markets as the rout in all but only the safest assets has deepened.  At the open this morning, U.S. stocks joined the selloffs in Europe and Asia, but later the S&P Index pared the worst of its losses by more than half as investors assess whether the current selling has gone too far, too fast.
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