Economic Outlook

 

Economic Outlook
January 04, 2011 Posted by
The Brazen Dozen is a list of twelve events that we believe have a 40 percent probability of occurring in 2011. These events skirt the outposts of probability.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
December 21, 2010 Posted by
Perhaps we can boil this down to a short maxim: Sometimes it's better to stop, wait, look and listen. Or, better put: Don't just do something, stand there! This is the course the Fed seems to be taking and I, for one, am applauding.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
December 14, 2010 Posted by
When bond markets move like this there is always a scramble to identify exactly why. Sometimes it can be obvious, like when yields begin to run just after an employment figure is released. But this time, it was less than obvious.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
December 08, 2010 Posted by
Last Wednesday brought a wonderful data dump by the Fed as they complied with a congressional order to release the recipients of TARP funds. The website ProPublica provides a list of the recipients of these funds as well as the funds provided to Fannie and Freddie.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
November 30, 2010 Posted by
Contrary to popular opinion, the savings rate has not been negative in recent decades. Though many would have you believe Americans are soullessly irresponsible consumers...
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
November 16, 2010 Posted by
Leaving aside all the bluster regarding QE2 for a moment, I thought we might explore something closer to our hearts: short-term bond supply.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
November 09, 2010 Posted by
By now you must be sick of hearing about QE2, the latest QE or quantitative easing effort to come out of the Fed. But at the risk of encouraging you to stop reading here, I feel the need to add one more perspective to last week's action and I promise to be brief.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
November 02, 2010 Posted by
It seems the market is all geared up for action with short-term rates rallying some 20 basis points since talk of such activity began in earnest. Not only that, but 10-year Treasuries have fallen about the same. Even the rate at which Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will make loans has hit an all-time low near an astounding 3.5 percent. ("If you qualify," of course!)
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
October 12, 2010 Posted by
Relativity can be a difficult concept. There are many that believe the dollar is going down, the euro is going down, and the pound is destined to drop.  The yen is the only developed currency that stands to gain, it seems.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion

Economic Outlook
October 05, 2010 Posted by
Many people are complaining today about low yields in the bond markets. They are complaining, that is, at the same time they are buying.
Read More
0 Comments | Join the Discussion