FX Daily

 

FX Daily
September 21, 2015 Posted by
We saw some further conflicting messages from a couple of central bank officials over the weekend which did little to clarify the situation....
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FX Daily
September 17, 2015 Posted by
The US FED kept rates unchanged at 0.25%. It was a 9-1 vote with Lacker (hawk) being the dissenter.
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FX Daily
September 17, 2015 Posted by
The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its 2 day policy meeting today. While the probability of a rate hike as implied by interest rate futures contracts is roughly 34%, economists are split roughly 50/50 as to whether or not the Fed will hike today for the first time since 2006 .
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FX Daily
September 16, 2015 Posted by
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its 2 day policy meeting today, in what is for market participants one of the most uncertain central bank meetings in recent history. As of this morning, the probability of a rate hike tomorrow is roughly 32% and the current backdrop is one of mixed US data, a strong USD, and the risk of a slowdown in China.
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FX Daily
September 15, 2015 Posted by
The USD is firmer on the back of rising US yields (10yr Tsy 2.22% +4bps) and higher S&P +0.8%.
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FX Daily
September 14, 2015 Posted by
The week is off to a quiet start as the market is squarely focused on Thursday's FOMC rate decision
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FX Daily
September 11, 2015 Posted by
The USD has rebounded from overnight lows and most currency pairs are been range bound with little market moving news. Equities are relatively flat with S&P -0.35%, treasury yields -4bps to 2.18% and Crude prices down 3% to $44.30.
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FX Daily
September 11, 2015 Posted by
The USD has rebounded from overnight lows and most currency pairs are been range bound with little market moving news. Equities are relatively flat with S&P -0.35%, treasury yields -4bps to 2.18% and Crude prices down 3% to $44.30. One pair worth noticing is EURCHF which popped above 1.10 for the first time since SNB scrapped the EUR peg in Jan.  USDJPY stayed sideline and comments from LDP lawmaker Yamamoto that Yen weakness would help Japan’s economy didn’t get much traction like it did on Thur when USDJPY jumped 1 big figure.  GBPUSD slipped marginally on disappointing UK construction data.  USDCNH bounced 300 pts after yesterday’s suspected intervention.  PBOC announced they will change the methodology of calculating Reserve Requirement Ratios effective Sep 15.  They added that it could release liquidity in some situations and boost liquidity when it is lacking. 

Elsewhere, Malaysia, Korea and Russia kept rates on hold as expected.  US PPI (ex food & energy) was flat and preliminary Michigan Sentiment dipped.  We’re still in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC on Sep 17.   This weekend we get Chinese retail sales and industrial production data which could create some ripples and next week we have rates decisions in Thailand, Indonesia and Chile.  


Key Events
• Central Banks in Korea, Malaysia and Russia kept rates on hold as expected
• U. Michigan sentiment plunged to 85.7 in Sep vs 91.1 expected
• U.S. PPI was flat in Aug vs -0.1% forecast
• U.S. budget gap forecast to narrow to-$62.4 bln (med -$84.0 bln) vs -$149.2 bln
• Crude back below $45 after Goldman cut 2015-16 crude price targets
• ECB's Coeure: Eurozone growth too weak to boost job creation sufficiently
• China changes the methodology of calculating RRR



Looking Ahead
09/12 CNY:  Retail Sales and Industrial Production (Aug)
09/14 EUR: German/Spain CPI Reports (Aug)
09/15 EUR:  German Zew Survey
09/15 USD: US Retail Sales
09/15: CLP:  Chile CB decision (no change at 3.00% expected)
09/16 USD:  US CPI & TIC Flows
09/16 THB:  Thailand CB rates decision (no change 1.50% exp)
09/16 IDR:   Bank Indonesia rates decision (no change 7.50% exp)
09/17 USD:  FOMC, C/A, Housing data



FX Indications
EUR 1.1318
JPY 120.5300
GBP 1.5416
CAD 1.3296
AUD 0.7063
NZD 0.6296
CHF 0.9743
SEK 8.2631
ILS 3.8780
INR 66.5450
CNY 6.3751
CNH 6.4125
KRW 1184.7500
BRL 3.8867
MXN 16.8400
RUB 68.102

Stock Indices
Dow          16,289
Nasdaq      4,769
S&P          1,943
TSX          13,442
FTSE         6,128
DAX         10,173
Nikkei       18,264
Shanghai   3,200

Commodities
Crude 44.31
Gold 1101.09

U.S. Treasuries
2 Year 0.705
3 Year 1.024
5 Year 1.503
10 Year 2.172
30 Year 2.925
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FX Daily
September 10, 2015 Posted by
Volatile markets persists as the USD whipsaws and commodities surges, while most major equities markets are calmer today.
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FX Daily
September 09, 2015 Posted by
The dollar is firmer although volatility remains elevated with global equities rallying.  Markets were off to the races after China’s finance ministry assured that they will adopt “stronger fiscal policies to support growth.”  Stocks in Shanghai climbed 2.3% and Nikkei jumped a whopping 7.7%, the strongest rally since 2008!
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