Insights

 

CIO Vantage Point; Economic Outlook
August 08, 2013 Posted by
The economy is popping against foil barriers, but only at the very beginning stages.
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CIO Vantage Point
August 07, 2013 Posted by

The Fed’s desire to communicate openly and transparently is running afoul.  And Bernanke seems to be running afoul of the policy.

Last month, after making it clear he wanted to begin reducing bond purchases the markets sold off, particularly the interest rate markets and in a short period mortgage rates were a full point higher.  Realizing they might continue to rise, he and his compatriots immediately reversed course attempting to ensure bond mavens believe QE is here to stay.

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CIO Vantage Point; Economic Outlook
August 02, 2013 Posted by

Employment stumbles, GDP rises, a mortgage false start, and Bernanke deposed!(?)

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Observation Deck
August 01, 2013 Posted by
Market speculation on the timing of the Fed’s tapering has caused volatility in the bond market. Global corporate new bond issuances declined materially in June 2013 compared to robust issuance levels during the first five months of 2013. Nonetheless, we generally expect corporate credit risk to remain steady through 2013, with divergence in credit trends among various sectors. While investment grade corporate credit spreads initially widened 16 bps on speculation of the Fed’s tapering bond purchases, they have recently tightened by around 20 bps to 76 bps around mid-July.
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Advisories
July 31, 2013 Posted by

FOMC Announcement - July 31, 2013

The Federal Reserve today decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0 to 0.25 percent. Policymakers suggest that U.S. economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, with labor market conditions showing "further improvement," however the unemployment rate remains elevated.

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CIO Vantage Point; Economic Outlook
July 31, 2013 Posted by
Major changes to GDP calculations are adding $400 billion per year, but does it matter?
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CIO Vantage Point; Economic Outlook
July 26, 2013 Posted by

Stocks reach a newh igh, China puts in a new floor, Washington faces the ceiling, and CFOs in the middle of the road.

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