CIO Vantage Point;
Economic Outlook
October 16, 2012 Posted by:
Joe Morgan, CFA
The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates.
Back after two weeks of R&R I find: tempered inflation, Britain retreating from the EU, decent retail sales activity, and a Softbank gamble. It seems by stepping out of the day-to-day you really can see progress in this economy.
Our mindset, even after four years in the doldrums, is for a roaring economy to return bringing millions of jobs and a significant reduction in the deficit over a short period of time. Unfortunately, it's not going to work that way this time.
But positive signs remain - the so-called "green shoots" that Bernanke discussed two years ago. As the jobs and housing markets continue to stabilize, we see corporations and households with improving balance sheets including capital that could be put to work.
Typically, what holds back investment at the micro level is lack of "good" projects. Today, however, there is a macro-hurdle, instead: economic and regulatory uncertainty.
At least some uncertainty will go away with next month's election, but what matters is that progress is made in Washington after that.
Unfortunately, history is littered with broken election promises and politicians even sometimes believe gridlock is a good thing. This is not the case today.
The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or SVB Asset Management, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.
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Election Uncertainty Needs to Give Way to ActionOctober 16, 2012 Posted by: Joe Morgan, CFAThe views expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or Silicon Valley Bank, or any of its affiliates.
Back after two weeks of R&R I find: tempered inflation, Britain retreating from the EU, decent retail sales activity, and a Softbank gamble. It seems by stepping out of the day-to-day you really can see progress in this economy.
Our mindset, even after four years in the doldrums, is for a roaring economy to return bringing millions of jobs and a significant reduction in the deficit over a short period of time. Unfortunately, it's not going to work that way this time.
But positive signs remain - the so-called "green shoots" that Bernanke discussed two years ago. As the jobs and housing markets continue to stabilize, we see corporations and households with improving balance sheets including capital that could be put to work.
Typically, what holds back investment at the micro level is lack of "good" projects. Today, however, there is a macro-hurdle, instead: economic and regulatory uncertainty.
At least some uncertainty will go away with next month's election, but...
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