It's just a jump to the left
And then a step to the right
hands on your hips
You bring your knees in tight
But it's the pelvic
That really drives you insane
Let's do the Time Warp
- Riff Raff from the Rocky Horror Picture
Howdy and salutations from your future self!
I wanted to
write to test the new iSend software we just installed, which allows the user to
send a fax back in time. (Yes, in addition to a fax machine, we also still have
a VCR, a gasoline-powered truck, and a cell phone!)
Going for maximum
effect, I am sending this note to myself some 20 years past. Incredible though
it may seem, this is not a joke taken from an episode of The Office,
but is truly a wonder in time travel.
To prove this is from the future, I
hope you will analyze the writing style and, of course, recognize the song quote
above from one of your favorite movies. Who else knows you were an RHPS
Now, among the several guidelines instituted by the Department
of Time Bending Message Transference is the rule that I cannot communicate any
information useful for speculation in the markets or information that will
potentially disrupt life today. We are pretty happy here and we want to keep it
I guess that's good news to you with all the uncertainty that
existed in 2010.
Why, just take a look at the Federal Reserve's Open
Market Committee statement released last week (your time!). Once again, phrasing
was added to Thomas Hoenig's dissenting statement. This time, it was suggested
that retaining the phrase "extended period" with regard to keeping interest
rates low could limit "the Committee's flexibility to begin raising rates
Now, I don't have to tell you how thoroughly this statement is
scrutinized before being released to the public and that there is nothing left
to chance in its phrasing. So, what do you think this means?
I know you
currently believe the Fed will hold off on increasing rates until at least the
fourth quarter if not 2011, but don't turn a blind eye towards such signals —
they may be important! (or they may not!)
Also, the nominations to the
Federal Reserve Board of Governors that the President made in the week leading
up to now are quite interesting. First, it will be new territory (at least in
the last four years) to have an actual full board at the FOMC. Second, the
timing of these picks is also interesting as talk about the Fed's "exit
strategy" is heating up.
Like any business, staffing must grow with
workload and so it may be the workload at the Fed is seen increasing from the
past four years. (Of course, I forgive you if you find this incredible given the
lack of "midnight oil" for sale in and around Washington post September
The nominees themselves may not be all that interesting, given
policy is traditionally set by the chairman. However, recall when Bernanke first
took office that it was widely believed he wanted a much more transparent and
democratic Fed process. Much of that seemed to fall by the side of the road on
the way to a multitude of government bailouts, but it's quite possible Bernanke
could resume such intentions in your relative equilibrium state.
focused. Stay informed. And pay attention to the little things. The phrase "the
devil is in the details" is very true, but opportunities exist there,
(P.S. Don't forget to get that mole checked!)
President Barack Obama made three appointments to
the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Confirmation of all three will bring the
board to its full strength for the first time in four years. The nominees are:
San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen (nominated to be vice chairman),
Maryland's commissioner of financial regulation Sarah Bloom Raskin, and MIT
economics professor Peter Diamond. In other news, the FOMC left rates unchanged
and retained language that low rates will prevail for an "extended period" at
their meeting last week.
Consumer confidence rose to 57.9 in April versus
expectations of a 53.5 reading. This was the highest reading since just before
Lehman failed in September 2008. The component indices both showed signs of
strength as well, though with the continuing challenges in the jobs market it is
difficult to envision this uptrend extending through the summer.
quarter's GDP number came in at 3.2 percent, a very respectable figure, although
much of this growth was driven by inventory activity similar to the fourth
quarter's figure. Business spending gathered some momentum, particularly in
equipment and software while residential investment contracted
* This note was received via fax and was dated May 2, 2030.
It purports to be a note from Joe Morgan 20 years in the future and is addressed
to the Joe Morgan of today. While we have no way of verifying the author or the
date written — and contemplating the continued use of fax machines 20 years from
now — we thought we'd share it just the same.
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