A Dollar Today or Several Tomorrow?

 
Economic Outlook
May 26, 2010 Posted by:

Mr. Telephone Man
There's something wrong with my line
When I dial my baby's number
I get a 'click' every time

- New Edition

This week, Democratic leaders in Congress expect to pass a $190 billion "jobs" bill that includes an increase in the tax paid by venture and private equity investors. The bill as it stands would tax as ordinary income 75 percent of carried interest, essentially doubling taxation on such partnerships. This is projected to garner $18.7 billion in additional revenues for Uncle Sam at a time every dollar is desperately needed.

However, consider the tax revenue lost by nipping future industries, profit and tax revenue streams in their infancy. Higher tax rates mean higher hurdles for investment, which necessarily restricts the amount of capital to be allocated to the entrepreneurial community. By limiting investment today, and therefore growth tomorrow, we are accepting far lower tax revenues in the long run than would be had if we were to encourage greater investment in tomorrow's Intels, Googles and Microsofts.

In addition, the jobs created by this industry are nothing to sneeze at. According to a study produced by Global Insights, originally venture-backed companies have created companies that account for 10.4 million jobs and over $2.3 trillion in revenue. Think of the taxes: income, payroll, sales, etc.!

But the fact is we have no idea where the venture and private equity investments of today will lead us tomorrow. The one thing we can be assured of is that America thrives because of such entrepreneurship and our economy surely will recover due in large part to the future success of entrepreneurs.

Creating obstacles like the one contained in this potential legislation in order to gain a paltry sum of revenue today is a foolish way to pay our ever-increasing government bills. Instead, we should foster growth at the infancy level by encouraging investment in new IP across all industries.

It is crucial that we maintain a thriving culture of small business and support for entrepreneurs. It is within the bureaucracies of large companies that it becomes most difficult to innovate, though many have improved in this area.

As just one example where smaller was better, consider that when Alexander Graham Bell offered to sell his telephone invention to Western Union, the committee that reviewed his proposal responded:

"{Bell} believes that one day they will be installed in every residence and place of business... He claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in the field. Bell's proposal to place his instrument in almost every home and business is fantastic. The central exchange alone would represent a huge outlay in real estate and buildings, to say nothing of electrical equipment. In conclusion, the committee feels that it must advise against any investment in Bell's scheme... any developments of the kind and scale which Bell so fondly imagines is utterly out of the question."

Whoops!

Key Developments

Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent in April after a 0.1 percent gain in March. For the year, overall CPI rose 2.2 percent and the core measure, which strips away volatile food and energy prices, was up just 0.9 percent. This was the smallest annual gain since January 1966. Any talk of building price pressures leading the Fed to raise rates seems quite premature at this stage.

Housing starts rose 5.8 percent, even as building permits dropped 11.5 percent in April. Economists' expectations were for a mere 3.8 percent growth in starts and no change in permits. With the housing sector treading water at such low levels, only consistent up-side surprises will imply true recovery.

The FDIC's first quarter 2010 banking profile continued the ever-growing list of so-called "problem institutions" from 702 at the end of 2009 to 775. In addition, as of May 21, 73 banks have failed so far this year as compared to 140 in all of 2009. The troubles in the banking sector are focused on smaller, regional banks that tend to have high levels of commercial real estate exposure.

The views expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of SVB Financial Group, or SVB Asset Management, or any of its affiliates. This material, including without limitation the statistical information herein, is provided for informational purposes only. The material is based in part upon information from third-party sources that we believe to be reliable, but which has not been independently verified by us and, as such, we do not represent that the information is accurate or complete. The information should not be viewed as tax, investment, legal or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decisions. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nothing relating to the material should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction.

SVB Asset Management, a registered investment advisor, is a non-bank affiliate of Silicon Valley Bank and member of SVB Financial Group. Products offered by SVB Asset Management are not FDIC insured, are not deposits or other obligations of Silicon Valley Bank, and may lose value.

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